When Should You Draft Breakout WRs? WR ADP and Draft Age – The Wrong Read, No. 42
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Welcome to the 42nd installment of the “The Wrong Read.” This article series started as one that reflected on recent podcast episodes and extended the ideas discussed there to logical conclusions with broader applications. Since then it’s become a space for me to write about whatever I want, with irregular references to various podcast episodes. Nevertheless, I’ll link to the episode that started my train of thought if applicable. I’ve been examining some ways to exploit typical inefficiencies in ADP over the last few weeks. Rookie running backs appear to be undervalued in almost every round, but especially in the middle rounds. And despite common narratives to the contrary, early-round rookie RBs are actually safer investments than their veteran counterparts. Looking at rookies and veterans together, however, reveals that early-round RBs tend to underperform ADP-based expectations more than any other position. Does this last discovery mean that we should focus on early wide receivers? Perhaps, but the reason may have as much to do with how poorly WRs tend to do in the later rounds: