The Points Per Target Danger Zone: Wide Receivers Due for Regression
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Points per target (PPT) is not a sticky stat. The relationship between a wide receiver’s PPT in year N has little correlation with his PPT in year N+1. Simply put, we can’t count on a player’s efficiency in terms of PPT carrying from season to season. Compare the stickiness of points per target to that of raw targets in the scatter plots below. Every wide receiver season pair in which a WR had at least 35 targets in both seasons is included. As you can see, points per target has almost no year-over-year predictiveness. Therefore, players who excel in PPT in one season often regress to the mean in the following season. We can use this knowledge to identify the WRs most likely to regress in 2018.