NASCAR

NASCAR DFS Picks and Projections for Pocono

NASCAR heads to Pocono Raceway for the second time this year. Post-qualifying inspection produced double-digit casualties, so it will be a super unique week for NASCAR DFS. As always, I’ll give you my NASCAR DFS picks for the race. Also, the NASCAR DFS Multi-Lineup OptimizerSim Scores, and Splits will be updated shortly for your NASCAR DFS needs.

For betting insights into the race, be sure to check out my piece at The Action Network.

If you’re new to daily fantasy NASCAR, or simply need a refresher, check out the flat track section of my track types article. Brush up on your general GPP strategy and game theory if you want to have a shot at taking down first place. If you’re more of a cash game player, check out how to target high floor drivers, and remember to find any potential race dominators.

Let’s get to the NASCAR DFS picks and projections for Pocono!

NASCAR DFS MODEL PROJECTIONS FOR POCONO

The model projections assume that the driver finishes the race – hence why you don’t see any average finishing positions worse than about 32nd. The Pts column shows the average projected DraftKings points for races when the driver finishes the race.

NOTE: ownership projections will be added later tonight

DriverStartFinishLLFLPtsSalOwn
Daniel Suarez115.3710.744.5219.21780016.4%
Denny Hamlin211.2313.856.4130.211000020.6%
Erik Jones310.5815.729.6334.5881009.5%
Brad Keselowski412.199.7315.8933.99940013.4%
Jamie McMurray513.822.943.5523.8880007.7%
Chase Elliott610.386.834.9533.42840010.4%
Kurt Busch77.8312.298.2642.55870011.6%
Martin Truex Jr85.9213.5510.6248.861150017.5%
Ryan Newman915.671.32.2423.1173009.3%
Alex Bowman1014.233.822.2427.61690010.1%
Matt Kenseth1113.372.693.1730.5274009.5%
Chris Buescher1220.41.91.5616.4559007.1%
Michael McDowell1321.884.191.4214.9956006.8%
AJ Allmendinger1420.262.051.1718.5862008.5%
Ty Dillon1521.871.811.0916.26550010.1%
David Ragan1622.280.520.4215.79570011.2%
Ricky Stenhouse Jr1717.183.491.0628.0476008.5%
Matt DiBenedetto1825.870.320.3210.553002.6%
Jeffrey Earnhardt1928.250.230.326.72
JJ Yeley2030.710.310.292.850002.2%
Corey Lajoie2129.250.340.276.7352002.4%
Ross Chastain2227.810.270.3310.6154003.9%
Kyle Weatherman2331.190.270.34.8546002.6%
Landon Cassill2431.180.370.275.8751002.2%
Reed Sorenson2531.070.350.357.1349002.4%
BJ McLeod2632.130.280.275.9448002.4%
Timmy Hill2732.670.280.225.8547002.5%
Kyle Busch288.8313.210.9463.11180032.0%
Kevin Harvick295.6114.110.9570.771120050.4%
Joey Logano308.792.043.558.69970024.3%
Clint Bowyer318.312.35.6761.79910029.5%
Kyle Larson329.471.957.5161.31040029.4%
Ryan Blaney3310.3310.677.0362.52850027.6%
Aric Almirola349.851.831.4559.49820025.3%
Jimmie Johnson359.030.481.4161.77890020.7%
Paul Menard3614.470.060.4551.3670030.6%
Austin Dillon3715.770.070.3249.64710034.7%
William Byron3814.611.810.2453.36660031.2%
Bubba Wallace3920.260.070.3642.69610025.7%
Kasey Kahne4021.350.991.0342.07640026.9%

NASCAR DFS PICKS – CASH GAMES

Kevin Harvick ($11,200) — Harvick would have started on the pole Sunday, but because of his failed inspection, he starts 29th. I’m still playing him in cash. He should put up the most fastest laps, is the favorite to win the race, and had the fastest car over 10 consecutive laps by over a whole mile per hour!

Clint Bowyer ($9100) — Bowyer posted a poor qualifying lap in round two of qualifying and then failed inspection. His 31st place starting position gives him plenty of place differential potential, and a nice floor too. Bowyer was top-six in single-lap speed in both practice sessions, and posted the third-best 10-lap average among the nine cars that made 10-lap runs.

William Byron ($6600) — Byron is a cash game lock at only $6600 while starting 38th. Byron was sixth fastest in opening practice, and a less impressive 24th in final practice. However, if we compare him to Paul Menard, who is $6700, Menard was slower in both sessions, and starts two spots in front of Byron, leaving Meanrd with a worse upside and floor.

NASCAR DFS PICKS – GPPS 

Kyle Larson ($10,400) — Larson is the drop-down-in-price option if you want to avoid using Harvick or Kyle Busch. That strategy can absolutely work as part of a more balanced approach to lineup building this weekend. Larson doesn’t have elite practice times, but he did have a second-place run in early June at this track so he has plenty of Pocono upside.

Austin Dillon ($7100) — Dillon is set up for a great race, and has a strong car this weekend, judging by practice times. Dillon posted the fourth-best 10-lap average of nine cars, but ahead of the likes of Joey Logano and Larson, among others. Dillon may go a bit lower owned as people stock up on Harvick and/or Kyle Busch and then dive to the $6k range for their other drivers. Since Dillon will be used in a lot of balanced lineups where Larson and/or Logano are the top dogs in those lineups, I love pairing Dillon with Harvick or Busch for a more unique approach. 

Paul Menard ($6700) — While Byron is the cash play, Menard is the GPP play here as a pivot off Byron, or by pairing with Byron. Menard is relatively boom-or-bust at the big, flat tracks. He placed 11th at Pocono earlier this year — one of five 11th-or-better finishes at the Tricky Triangle in his career — and he has a win at Indianapolis back in 2011. However, he’s also had his share of issues at Pocono through his career. He has 13 finishes of 25th or worse, but eight finishes of 16th or better. Only twice has he finished 17th-24th.

NASCAR DFS POCONO FADES

Jamie McMurray ($8000) — I have no idea why McMurray is priced at $8000 at Pocono. He’s TERRIBLE at Pocono. Read my blurb about him from the first Pocono race. He isn’t good here. He was dead last in 10-lap average in final practice of the nine cars that ran, and he wasn’t really even close to the eighth place car. Just avoid him.

Every driver starting 18th to 27th — Seriously. Look at those projections. YIKES!

 

SUNDAY UPDATE — I’ve decided I’m going to take a stand and just fade Kyle Busch completely. I think Harvick has the better car, and Busch costs much more. If Busch doesn’t dominate and/or finish top two or three, I think it will pay off. I love the ownership percentage leverage I’ll get with fading Busch, and using more of Larson, Logano, Bowyer, Blaney, and Johnson.

Author Details
Co-Owner and Editor-in-Chief at RotoViz
Co-Owner and Editor-in-Chief at RotoViz. Mathematics Ph.D. 3x qualifier for the DraftKings NASCAR Main Event.
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