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More Proof Rookie Running Backs Are the Key to Winning at Fantasy – The Wrong Read, No. 39

Welcome to the 39th installment of the “The Wrong Read.” This article series started as one that reflected on recent podcast episodes and extended the ideas discussed there to logical conclusions with broader applications. Since then it’s become a space for me to write about whatever I want, with irregular references to various podcast episodes. Nevertheless, I’ll link to the episode that started my train of thought if applicable. Last week I started exploring average draft position (ADP). My suggestion in that piece was that ADP does not appear to be consistently beatable, if beating ADP means compiling more accurate rankings year after year. However, I also suggested there may be another way to beat ADP consistently that doesn’t require us to become expert rankers. It may be possible to beat ADP — that is, to win at fantasy football — by exploiting persistent inefficiencies within ADP. In other words, even though we may not be able to consistently be more right than ADP, we can take advantage of ways in which ADP is consistently wrong. The article you’re currently reading attempts to do just that by looking for ways ADP routinely gets rookie running backs wrong.

Finding Inefficiencies in Rookie RB ADPs

In a previous piece I explored the idea that rookie RBs might be the key to winning in best ball with a Zero-RB approach.1 Even rookie RBs who did not end the season with a high point total still did enough to end up in the top five at the position at least one week — and many did it multiple weeks. So rookie RBs were definitely valuable assets for best ball players last year. But one key question remains: Even though rookie RBs were valuable, does that also mean they were values? In other words, did they outperform expectations? And if so, do rookie RBs always outperform expectations?
  1. Zero-RB drafters had a better 2017 than most would assume, especially those who drafted Alvin Kamara or Kareem Hunt.  (back)

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By Blair Andrews | @AmItheRealBlair | Archive