How Accurate is Average Draft Position? The Wrong Read, No. 38
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Welcome to the 38th installment of the “The Wrong Read.” This article series started as one that reflected on recent podcast episodes and extended the ideas discussed there to logical conclusions with broader applications. Since then it’s become a space for me to write about whatever I want, with irregular references to various podcast episodes. Nevertheless, I’ll link to the episode that started my train of thought if applicable. I’ve spent the last several weeks exploring the topics of age and experience and how they influence NFL production and the frequency of breakouts. I’ve gotten so good at it in fact that I’ve managed to reverse the flow of causality, so that now RotoViz podcasts are extending the insights found in “The Wrong Read,” creating an infinite loop of fantasy analysis. Now that I control what topics we revisit within our collective eternal recurrence, I’m turning my attention to a subject that earns at least passing mention on nearly every RotoViz football podcast: average draft position. My goal is to find exploitable trends within ADP: what types of players are consistently undervalued or overvalued by fantasy gamers? What portions of the draft, if any, tend to produce the most breakouts? The most failures? The biggest values? However, for the introductory piece in this series, I’m exploring a somewhat less ambitious but still crucial question: how accurate is ADP anyway?