The Tight End Model Predicts the Stars And Busts of 2018
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Tight ends typically take time to develop. Taking the wrong TE in a rookie draft is not only a waste of a pick, but can clog a roster spot for years as you wait for production that never materializes. Missing on a TE can be a costly mistake. Fortunately, we have a secret weapon here at RotoViz, one that was able to predict busts with a 98 percent accuracy. Phil Watkins (@Advantalytics) published his TE model here last year, and it was a smash success. The players predicted for the highest probability of success are guys that you’ll see at the top of the dynasty TE rankings, while players who failed to meet the 15 percent success threshold are a collection of busts and one-year-wonders. While it’s important to remember these are all just probabilities – even the best players have a chance to bust and some uninspiring guys can break out – knowing the odds before you commit draft capital to a player is crucial to making winning decisions. This year, Phil has opted to pass the torch. He’s too busy taking on new, exciting challenges in sports analytics, and other mundane stuff, like helping find the cure for cancer.1 I’ll be your guide through the 2018 model results, and will follow up next week with a look at the bargains and busts we can find based on rookie ADP. Before diving in to this year’s class though, here are some refreshers and background information on how Phil built the model and how to interpret the results:
- At least I assume that’s what he’s doing as a biostatistician. He could also be developing new treatments for athlete’s foot. Also noble in it’s own way, but “cancer cure” is sexier, so I’m going with that. (back)