Running Back Breakouts: Should You Draft Rookies in Redraft? – The Wrong Read, No. 37
Get a free NFL subscription for 3 days.
Welcome to the 37th installment of the “The Wrong Read.” This article series started as one that reflected on recent podcast episodes and extended the ideas discussed there to logical conclusions with broader applications. Since then it’s become a space for me to write about whatever I want, with irregular references to various podcast episodes. Last week’s edition of “The Wrong Read” looked at the frequency of WR breakouts at various levels of NFL experience. What we found was that for early picks, breakouts happen most frequently in the first three years — especially in the first two. If an early pick hasn’t broken out after three years in the league, the chances of doing so are low. On the other hand, late-round picks and UDFAs tend not to break out immediately. They see a spike in Year 2, after sitting on the bench for a year, and in Year 5, after possibly changing teams. Do the same trends hold at other positions? In this article I want to examine RB breakouts.