Dynasty

Free: J’Mon Moore Is Your New Aaron Rodgers Lottery Ticket

Originally published April 29, J’Mon Moore Is Your New Aaron Rodgers Lottery Ticket is part of our Memorial Day weekend free look at the best of RotoViz.

J’Mon Moore was drafted 133rd overall by the Green Bay Packers as the 15th wide receiver selected in the 2018 NFL draft. Moore failed to crack the top 15 in the RotoViz Scouting Index, but was drafted ahead of several big name WR prospects. He put together back-to-back strong performances as a junior and senior, which put him on the radar of most NFL scouts. The 6-foot-3, 207-pound receiver will be among the oldest WRs on draft day, which raises questions about his chances of maturing into a dominant player in the NFL.

Not only is Moore one of the oldest WRs in this class, but he also has one of the latest breakout ages. Only 19 percent of the top-100 picks with Moore’s breakout age have reached the 200-point plateau in at least one of their first three seasons. It comes as no surprise that Moore fares poorly in Anthony Amico’s WR prospect model.

However, before we bury Moore’s NFL chances with the Green Bay Packers,  let’s take a deeper look at his prospect profile.

J’MON MOORE, MISSOURI, 6-3, 207

RAW AND MARKET SHARE COLLEGE PRODUCTION

Year Games Rec ReYds ReTDs msYd mdTD DR
2015 11 29 350 3 0.18 0.30 0.24
2016 12 62 1012 8 0.29 0.32 0.30
2017 13 65 1082 10 0.27 0.23 0.25
Career 36 156 2444 21 0.26 0.27 0.26

A bit of a late bloomer, Moore redshirted in 2013 and saw limited playing time in 2014. He only played in three games and posted a 2/33/0 line. As a sophomore, he played 11 games and posted a 29/350/3 receiving line. Although Moore accounted for 18 percent of Missouri’s receiving yards, note that 74 yards1 came in Week 1 against Southeast Missouri State. He failed to crack the 50-yard barrier for the rest of the season but led the team in receptions and yards.

As a junior, Moore put together a breakout campaign. His 62/1012/8 line accounted for 29 percent of the receiving yards and 32 percent of the team’s receiving TDs. Moore’s most impressive performance came against Georgia2 where he caught eight balls for 196 yards and two TDs. Additionally, Moore posted over 130 receiving yards per game over the last three weeks of the season.

In 2017, Moore’s raw receiving yards placed him among the top-25 WRs in the nation. It helps that Moore played on an offense that ranked 25th in passing S&P+ and 39th in Passing Success Rate, but note that he was the only WR to break the 1,000-yard barrier.

Additionally, Moore’s mixed combine results don’t succeed in offsetting the concerns around his age. Moore’s 40-yard dash time of 4.60 placed him 32 out of 37 WRs, but he posted strong performances in the other categories. His three-cone (6.56) and short shuttle (4.04) times were among the best for WRs, and his 38-inch vertical placed in the top five. Moore may not possess the raw speed we’d like to see from older prospects, but he possess plenty of peripheral athleticism. However, it’s hard to ignore his poor Freak Score (47) and Phenom Index (0.074) results.

Moore’s career market share also falls short of the preferred threshold in Kevin Cole’s regression tree. Despite finding himself in the less favorable split, Moore almost manages to reach the 50 percent node due to his combination of yardage and yards per catch (16.6).3 His age is again a bad sign.

WR Regression Tree

The Landing Spot

Moore landed in an ideal spot, finding himself on an offense with plenty of air yards up for grabs and the best receiving opportunity score.

airyardopportunity

opp_chart

Moore should compete for targets right away. The Green Bay Packers traded away Jordy Nelson and lack quality depth behind Davante Adams and Randall Cobb.4 Although the team brought in Jimmy Graham, he shouldn’t replace Nelson’s targets on his own.

Jordy Nelson Splits

Graham could absorb most of Nelson’s red-zone target share and some of the vacant air yards, but there’s still plenty of volume to go around. Rodgers is capable of supporting multiple fantasy viable WRs, and Moore would be the beneficiary if he wins the WR3 job in training camp.

He will be facing multiple competitors in the form of Geronimo Allison, as well as recently drafted rookies Marquez Valdes-Scantling and pre-draft darling Equanimeous St. Brown. It should be noted that this is the first time since 20155 that the Packers have drafted a WR in the first four rounds of the NFL Draft. 6

Although Moore’s late breakout age coupled with a poor showing in Amico’s model suggest he’s a low-floor dynasty asset, his excellent landing spot makes him an intriguing fantasy asset. He’s worth drafting in the early third-round of rookie drafts.

  1. 21.1 percent of Moore’s total sophomore production  (back)
  2. ranked No. 16 in the nation  (back)
  3. The left split of the tree wants him to be under 4.8 receptions per game – because that would demonstrate more explosiveness at his yardage level – a number Moore is barely over, but his 16.6 YPR would have been strong enough in the right split. Remember not to overemphasize the specifics of the tree and instead use it as a tool for considering what traits are generally positive for WR prospects.  (back)
  4. Cobb is probably safe as the Packers failed to select an early WR, but he was a rumored cut candidate earlier in the offseason, especially if GB opts to move Ty Mongtomery into his role.  (back)
  5. when the Packers drafted Ty Montgomery in the third round  (back)
  6. WRs with more draft capital invested in them have out-performed their lower drafted peer group by a wide margin.  (back)
By Hasan Rahim | @hrr5010 | Archive