Advice

Corey Davis, Chris Godwin, and Rookie Derangement Syndrome

One of my favorite RotoViz pieces was written by Coleman Kelly on Rookie Derangement Syndrome. The term was coined by College Football Metrics writer R.C. Fischer regarding rookies being overvalued and second-year players being undervalued. The phenomenon typically takes place after the NFL draft each year. In most seasons, the shiny new rookies represent a trap. The odds of rookie picks hitting are much lower than it seems. This is especially relevant this season due to running back fever. Historically, early-round RBs have been disappointments as rookies. This provides an opportunity to sell rookies at a profit in dynasty while pivoting to players closing in on a breakout. It also provides numerous ADP values in redraft. Entering the second season is the best time to buy any player in any format. Year 2 is the season where WRs show the greatest increase in points.

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By Mike Braude | @BraudeM | Archive

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