Dynasty

The Ultimate 2018 Rookie WR Chart: Every RotoViz Metric in One Place

Our analysts have spent much of the past few months building new analytics models and perfecting the classics. All the work has been published and is ready to go for the NFL Draft this weekend, but in the name of convenience, here is every metric wrapped up into one tidy chart for simple reference. We already charted what is shaping up to be a phenomenal rookie running back class; now let’s look at the wide receivers. The table is sortable by every category, so for example, you can find out where D.J. Moore ranks in both Phenom Index and Breakout Age in a few quick clicks. Bookmark this page and keep it handy for your upcoming rookie drafts.  Here is an explanation of each of the seven metrics in the table. Age – This one is obvious, but important, as age matters. Breakout Age – Also known as the “cheat code,” or the “skeleton key,” breakout age is crucial to projecting WRs to the NFL. If you looked at nothing else but early breakout age and draft position, you’d hit more WRs than you’d miss. The definition, according to author Shawn Siegele: In order to qualify as a “breakout,” the criterion was that the receiver needed a 0.30 Dominator Rating (average of market share touchdowns and market share yards). If there’s one column you use to guide you, let it be this one and the next one. Phenom Index – The Phenom Index is another way of incorporating a player’s age into their evaluation. The average Phenom score of the top-12 fantasy receivers in the NFL in 2017 was 2.09. It’s incredibly rare for a player to have a score below zero and turn into a premier fantasy option. – Jon Moore Freak Score – Freak Score is our scaled metric that uses height, weight, and speed to project the TD-scoring potential for NFL prospects.  The incomparable Calvin Johnson sets our scale at 100.1 By comparison, Julio Jones, the current freakiest NFL receiver, comes in at 84. Last year the highest score was turned by Robert Davis with a 73. – Shawn Siegele Final Season (FS) Market Share – The player’s market share of his team’s receiving yards in his final season. Amico Projection Model –  I built the model to predict a WR’s best season within his first three years in the league. – Anthony Amico. RotoViz Scouting Index – The RotoViz Scouting Index (RSI) tracks NFL draft prospect rankings from a variety of traditional scouting sites, giving you quick insight into how incoming rookies are currently being valued over in “real football” land. Here is every RotoViz rookie WR metric in one chart.

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By Cort Smith | @cortnall | Archive

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  1. Hey @hrr5010, thanks so much for the reply.

    This spreadsheet you provided is SO cool - thank you! I don't think it contains what I'm looking for (but please correct me if I am wrong). What I am looking for is:

    Don't mean to be difficult, I just won't be able to compare this draft class to past years' classes in my own model (linked above) without these variables as that is what I've fed into the model previously.

  2. OK! I get it now! So if you're looking for individual final season DR ratings, we've done a few posts regarding each prospect and have those listed in their profiles.

    For example, here's a post I did for D.J. Moore a while back. His final season DR is 0.53.

    For the Career MS, Anthony Amico previewed the various conferences. If you look at this post of his for example, you can find the CARMSRECYD and CARMSRECTD among other stats.

  3. Thank you!!

    For the DR, is there somewhere I can access that for all draft-eligible WR (not just the ones that have been specifically written-up)? Or, somewhere with the underlying data, which I can crunch into DR on my end?

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