Advice

Opportunity Scores Based on ADP Expected Points

What are the best landing spots for rookie WRs? Which receiving corps are drafters undervaluing? Which QBs are drafters undervaluing? The best way to get at these questions is to look at ADP. In past years, Kevin Cole has developed opportunity scores for each team based on the ADPs of their QB and various receivers. I’m going to continue his work, only using a slightly different method. I knew I wanted to base the opportunity scores on ADP. ADP can account for some changes in opportunity that simply looking at the targets or air yards cannot, such as coaching changes and NFL draft expectations. But the problem with using ADP directly is that it’s linear, even though fantasy scoring isn’t. That is to say, ADP doesn’t account for what we might call tier breaks or large gaps between players. In particular, the gaps in scoring tend to be much larger at the top than simple rankings would indicate. In 2017, the gap between the top running back and the second-ranked RB was six times larger than the gap between the fourth and fifth-ranked RBs. Therefore, rather than use actual ADP as a way to measure value, I’m using historical average PPR points at each positional finish to translate ADP into expected points. I’ve discounted each team’s passing expected points by the QB1’s rushing contribution, as a percentage of PPR points.1 And I’ve discounted each team’s receiving expected points by its RBs’ rushing contribution as a percentage of PPR points. This is to account for the fact that ADP incorporates QB rushing, whereas passing scores should not. And of course ADP incorporates RB rushing, but receiving scores should not. Finally, I scaled each score from from 0 to 100 for ease of comparison. Subtracting the receiving score from the passing score gives you a team’s receiving opportunity score. Confused yet? Things will become much clearer as we go through the scores (I hope).
  1. Depth charts are determined by ADP for this exercise.  (back)

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By Blair Andrews | @AmItheRealBlair | Archive