NASCAR

NASCAR DFS Picks, Fades, Projections for Bristol

NASCAR makes its first trip to Bristol Motor Speedway for the 2018 season. Bristol is a half-mile, steeply banked bullring, where accidents can happen quickly. As always, I’ll give you my NASCAR DFS picks, fades, and projections for this weekend’s race. Also, the NASCAR DFS Multi-Lineup Optimizer, Sim Scores, and Splits apps are updated for your NASCAR DFS needs.

For betting insights into the race, check out my piece at The Action Network. In that article, I’ll highlight my favorite NASCAR bets for Sunday’s race. Also, be sure to check out Matthew Freedman’s article on the top prop bets for Bristol.

I’m on vacation in Long Beach for the IndyCar race, so I will record RotoViz Live tonight (Saturday night) at 8:30pm PT/5:30pm ET — thus, be sure to get your questions to me on Twitter using the hashtag #RVLive before  and I’ll pick the best ones to answer. The video with my answers will be posted after I finish recording at rotoviz.com/live.

If you’re new to daily fantasy NASCAR, or simply need a refresher, check out the steep track section of my track types article. Brush up on your general GPP strategy and game theory if you want to have a shot at taking down first place. If you’re more of a cash game player, check out how to target high floor drivers, and remember to find any potential race dominators.

Let’s get to the NASCAR DFS picks and projections for Bristol!

NASCAR DFS MODEL PROJECTIONS FOR BRISTOL

The model projections assume that the driver finishes the race – hence why you don’t see any average finishing positions worse than about 26th. The Pts column shows the average projected DraftKings points for races when the driver finishes the race.

DriverStartFinishLLFLPtsSalOwn
Kyle Busch112.6745.8640.7551.51130051.4%
Kurt Busch216.9923.8216.726.33850016.0%
Brad Keselowski314.523229.4840.691060013.7%
Ricky Stenhouse Jr413.1217.0117.8734.94760013.3%
Ryan Blaney515.4433.7628.8340.9786009.7%
Kyle Larson613.2230.2225.4743.84970028.9%
Paul Menard716.479.4511.0925.9768008.5%
Alex Bowman819.9715.085.4318.5474008.5%
Michael McDowell916.6915.9315.2331.21580014.7%
Joey Logano1010.8323.1118.5647.4930013.0%
William Byron1116.119.944.9127.7367008.4%
Daniel Suarez1214.0814.199.5236.14720015.1%
Erik Jones1312.4822.3416.9646.11830022.0%
Clint Bowyer1413.420.4913.8643.25820019.5%
Kasey Kahne1517.1793.6128.71650015.2%
Chase Elliott1610.520.9718.0953.291010022.2%
Jimmie Johnson1710.9510.1217.3950.32880016.0%
AJ Allmendinger1817.876.722.8729.38640015.5%
Aric Almirola1917.556.63.4431.28920012.1%
Darrell Wallace Jr2016.486.923.1734.3563009.3%
Austin Dillon2114.236.993.9740.26780014.2%
Chris Buescher2219.26.853.3631610010.9%
David Ragan2318.887.474.5533.38540018.0%
Matt DiBenedetto2419.287.442.6832.6356007.6%
Denny Hamlin251127.7522.2565.05950030.8%
Martin Truex Jr261425.1726.6261.61080018.5%
Ross Chastain2720.110.61.6131.7350006.6%
Gray Gaulding2824.560.951.4223.8348004.6%
Landon Cassill2923.648.30.9928.29460013.4%
Ryan Newman3015.359.79.6150.53800023.7%
Jamie McMurray3117.569.251.5842.99700039.0%
Ty Dillon3222.797.081.0532.7259005.2%
Trevor Bayne3318.676.881.0441.9600015.4%
Corey Lajoie3425.290.160.6527.7947003.7%
D.J. Kennington3525.010.160.9129.4952006.4%
Reed Sorenson3626.390.810.5427.6951001.5%
Harrison Rhodes3725.630.810.7230.349002.3%
Chad Finchum3826.650.120.729.0945003.8%
Kevin Harvick3915.5529.7627.0872.881150041.6%

Now on to the NASCAR DFS picks for Sunday!

NASCAR DFS PICKS – CASH GAMES

Kyle Busch ($11,300) — Kyle Busch captured the pole at a place he has frequently dominated at in the past. He’s led at least 150 laps in three of the past five Bristol races, and is sure to lead a sizable chunk here with the best starting spot in the field.

Kevin Harvick ($11,500) — Harvick didn’t make a qualifying lap and will start dead last in the 39 car field. While Harvick hasn’t shown a ton of speed this weekend, you can safely assume that with no incidents he’ll wind up inside the top 15 by race end. Bristol track history is important this weekend, and Harvick has the second-best driver rating over the past eight Bristol races. If we expand that to all steep tracks, he’s still fifth in driver rating over the past eight steep track races.

Jamie McMurray ($7000)  — McMurray starts deep in the field in 31st place, but that provides ample opportunity for place differential. McMurray is coming off a strong third-place finish at Texas, putting behind him much of the bad luck that’s plagued him so far this year. That bad luck has caused his price to drop well below what it should be, especially at Bristol where he has the 11th-best driver rating over the past eight races.

NASCAR DFS PICKS – GPPS

Kyle Larson ($9400) — Larson burned us last weekend when he got sent to the rear before the start of the race for failing inspection, then proceeded to pop a tire and wreck out. Until that point, he was on pace for a top five (or better) finish. Now we head to one of his best tracks — he led at least 70 laps in both Bristol races last year. He’s had a driver rating over 104 in four of his six incident-free races at Bristol, and should be a threat to win. His practice times didn’t light up the field, so if that keeps people off of him, I love it. His 10-lap average was only 20th, but last year his 10-lap averages were 16th when he led 202 laps, and sixth when he led 70 laps. RISK LEVEL: Medium-Low

Ryan Newman ($8000) — Newman is an interesting pivot off of McMurray. Compared to McMurray, he should be lower owned because he’s $1000 more expensive, starts one spot further ahead, and is lower (by one place) in Bristol driver rating. But that still puts him 12th overall in Bristol driver rating, and get this — over the past 24 Bristol races, Newman has finished outside the top 16 only five times. If he finishes 16th, that’s 42 DraftKings points, which is enough to put him in contention for the winning lineup. Anything better and he’ll have a great chance to wind up in the winning lineup. RISK LEVEL: Low

Clint Bowyer ($8200) — Bowyer is a great play this weekend and checks all the boxes. First, he has three top eight finishes in the past five Bristol races even though two of those races were in far inferior equipment in 2016. Going all the way back to 2006, Bowyer has 11 top eight finishes in 22 starts, for a 50 percent top eight rate. He also practice eighth quickest over 10 consecutive laps in Happy Hour, and is underpriced at $8200. Anything better than an eight place finish and he has a strong shot at being in the winning lineup. RISK LEVEL: Medium

NASCAR DFS MARTINSVILLE FADES

Alex Bowman ($7400) — Bowman starts eighth but doesn’t have the profile of a driver who can finish there. In his only steep track start in Hendrick equipment, he started 19th and finished 16th at Homestead in 2016. Prior to that, he only raced in inferior equipment, but never put in a steep track performance that punched above the equipment weight like other back markers have at times. That gives me little confidence that he’ll survive the bevy of solid drivers behind him to post a finish required to be in the winning lineup. RISK LEVEL: Low

Author Details
Co-Owner and Editor-in-Chief at RotoViz
Co-Owner and Editor-in-Chief at RotoViz. Mathematics Ph.D. 3x qualifier for the DraftKings NASCAR Main Event.
By RotoDoc | @RotoDoc | Archive