How Much Does Draft Age Matter for Wide Receivers? Redux – The Wrong Read, No. 32

Welcome to the 32nd installment of the “The Wrong Read,” an article series that reflects on recent podcast episodes, pushing the ideas discussed on the podcasts to their logical conclusions and offering some further thoughts on the topics broached by the guests and hosts. Brandin Cooks was recently traded to the Rams. My initial reaction is that this figures to hurt his fantasy outlook, not least because of what a team change usually means for wide receivers. My first look at the effects of draft age for “The Wrong Read” focused on the wide receiver position. However, that article was written midseason, which meant full 2017 data wasn’t available. I also did not look at the data from all the angles I have been using over the last few weeks in my examinations of tight ends, running backs, and quarterbacks. In particular, I didn’t ask what would happen if we count each player only once. In other words, what is the likelihood that a WR will have a top-24 season based on his draft age? Additionally, I estimated a top-24 season by using 200 PPR points as a threshold. Although this gets us pretty close, we can do better by using actual rankings. So this article updates the WR findings by adding a little more data and a few more charts. But the point remains the same: draft age matters a lot.

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By Blair Andrews | @AmItheRealBlair | Archive