Draft Strategy

Best Ball Bargain Hunting: Wide Receivers

The Best Ball Bargain Hunting series looks at the ADP differences for players across popular platforms in order to identify players who may be flying under the radar on specific sites. For an explanation of the methodology, check out the running back article that kicked off the series. With more wide receivers being drafted than any other position, there is larger variance at the ends of drafts than the other positions. The analysis and commentary will focus mostly on players in the higher value rounds, but it’s also worth looking through the tables at some of the late-round fliers that might be getting ignored on certain sites. The only scoring note here is to remind readers that DRAFT is a half-PPR format, which changes valuations a bit for players who rely mostly on reception totals for their scoring. This is the final position in the series, but it may be worth revisiting after the NFL draft as there will be massive shifts in player value once landing spots are determined. In the meantime, be sure to check out the rest of the series if you haven’t already:

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By John Lapinski | @http://twitter.com/FF_SkiBall | Archive

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  1. JLaps says:

    Hey Ryan.

    Since there are somewhat different strategies for each site, I'm looking at it through the lens of positional ADP. If a player is being drafted as the 20th RB on FFPC, but he's going off the board, on average, as the 25th RB on the other 3 sites, then the column for "FFPC - Average" will show -5 (20 - 25 = -5) Negative values thus indicate a player is being drafted earlier on a particular site, while positive values indicate he is being drafted later (relative to his positional ADP)

    So for each table it's comparing the positional ADP of the specified site to:

    (Column 2) the average positional ADP of the other 3 sites in the study
    (Column 3) the positional ADP of MFL10s only (hence why the MFL10 table has one fewer column)

    I chose to do it this way because MFL10s are probably the closest thing to an "industry standard" when it comes to best ball right now. In your example, -3 in both columns would mean that the player is going 3 positions earlier (e.g. RB40 instead of RB43) on that site than he is when compared to the average of the 3 other sites as well as in MFL10s specifically.

    In the case of Gallman in the FFPC table with 4.3 , -4, that means he's being selected 4.3 positions later than the average of the other sites on FFPC, but that he's actually being selected 4 positions earlier in FFPC drafts than in MFL10s. This means that he's going much earlier in DRAFT and/or Fantrax. In this case, it looks like DRAFT is where he was being drafted the earliest by a large margin.

    This actually helps illustrate why I included a column just for MFL10s which have a large volume of drafts giving it a more stable ADP with fewer big outliers. Gallman's ADP on DRAFT is a pretty large outlier, so even though he looks cheap on FFPC compared to the average, in reality DRAFT is just pulling the average up so high, that he's not a huge bargain. You can also expect to see much bigger outliers for players with super late ADPs.

    Let me know if that clears it up.

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