3 Surprising Teams to Target for RB Gold in 2018

Targeting the three least efficient rushing teams in the NFL might seem like an odd place to start in your search for a league winner at running back. We remember these backfields being so bad just a few months ago, we tend to think they’ll continue to be bad. That recency bias means that the RBs from these teams have been largely written off. But since RB efficiency is often a drunk staggering randomly across the graph, this is exactly where we want to start our RB quest.

2017’s Least Efficient Rushing Offenses

Here’s a look at the three teams who were at the bottom of the pile in terms of Rushing Points Over Expectation. Capture One could argue that Seattle is trending in a downward direction, but that also could just be a coincidence, because if you actually charted every team’s rushing efficiency over the past four years, most would look like these lines we see from Tampa Bay and Washington.  That is, it’s mostly random; up one year and down the next — always regressing to the mean.

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By Cort Smith | @@rotocort | Archive