How Much Does Draft Age Matter for Tight Ends? – The Wrong Read, No. 29
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Welcome to the 29th installment of the “The Wrong Read,” an article series that reflects on recent podcast episodes, pushing the ideas discussed on the podcasts to their logical conclusions and offering some further thoughts on the topics broached by the guests and hosts. Now that rookies have been added to DRAFT Best Ball Leagues and MFL10s have started up, you might have some questions about how to handle the upcoming rookie class. Here’s my take on the value of rookie running backs in best ball leagues. During the season I explored the importance of draft age for wide receivers, and confirmed, basically, what we already knew—that draft age is pretty important. Anthony Amico’s recent work has reconfirmed it. I did not at that time examine any other positions. But a recent discussion on the High-Stakes Lowdown brought up the issue of draft age for tight ends. Host Eric Balkman asked guest John Terry on a recent episode whether he was worried about Hayden Hurst’s age. Hurst will be 25 before the 2018 season starts. The discussion revolved around the number of productive years he could be expected to provide for dynasty owners, especially given the typical learning curve of the TE position in the NFL. However, should Hurst’s advanced age be a concern even disregarding his potential career length? Many TEs play well into their 30s, so it’s not as though Hurst can’t be productive for a long time—at least long enough for most dynasty owners. But does his age signal a lower likelihood to ever produce at a high level in the NFL? We’ve seen that WRs who enter the league younger are at an advantage over those who enter the league at an older age. Younger WRs have historically produced higher-scoring fantasy seasons and have been more likely to produce top WR seasons. Are things the same for TEs? And what about other positions?