Advice

Week 15 Fantasy Projections: Cooper Kupp and Cam Newton for the Win

The RotoViz Game Level Similarity Projections help you make lineup decisions using historical matchups as your guide. Week 15 is upon us, and it’s time to make start/sit and roster management decisions. Earlier in the week, we looked at preliminary GLSP projections derived from a model I pulled together. Let’s compare and contrast these results with the GLSP projections calculated by the RotoViz apps and identify players with a surprising range of outcomes. As a reminder, GLSP projections are agnostic of a player’s situation, health, and external factors. They are compiled through the use of historical data to identify matchups between comparable players and defenses. How have wide receivers similar to Marvin Jones fared against defenses similar to the Bears? These are the types of questions that GLSP attempts to answer. GLSP projections rely solely on historical data.

How’d We Do Last Week?

I made some good calls in Week 14 that were offset by some very bad ones. Jameis Winston, the surprisingly good quarterback call, fell flat producing just 14 points. Even worse, Dak Prescott, who had been expected to struggle, scored 27 points as QB3. Running back results were more favorable. Frank Gore performed well, as expected, and scored 15 points as RB20. Jerick McKinnon proved to be limited and was held to under eight points. Demaryius Thomas was surprisingly good. He turned 12 targets into eight receptions, 93 yards, and a touchdown. Thomas finished with 23 points as WR6. Stefon Diggs was a WR3, as predicted, scoring 12 points and finishing as WR32. I heard from a number of fantasy owners last week that needed to choose between the two, so I’m happy it worked out. On the flip side, my apologies for the tight end calls. Julius Thomas was awful; he scored just three points. Jared Cook crushed my expectations. He scored 19 points and was the TE3.

Week 15 Fantasy Projections

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By Dave Caban | @DaveCabanFF | Archive

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  1. Opinion on Kenyan Drake? Saw your model is pretty down on him this week. I know he has a small sample size but if you limit the site model to his most recent 6 games (since Ajayi traded) his outcome looks pretty strong. Does your model limit sample size similarly or are his games behind Ajayi included?

  2. Jeff says:

    @dcaban, I've seen the nice outlook for Kupp on the GLSP app, but wondering about the return of Robert Woods. Woods' median projection is 7.5, but he was crushing it before going out. I have the fortune or misfortune of having Diggs and Evans in my 0.5 ppr league, along with Woods, Corey Coleman, and D Westbrook. My RB group includes Gordon, Kamara, Dion Lewis, K Williams, and Ekeler. Need to determine who to start along with Gordon and Kamara, need 2 WR and a flex. Do I trust Diggs and Evans again and go with Lewis at flex? GLSP likes Woods and Westbrook over Lewis. Crazy to have Woods at flex and replace Evans or Diggs with Westbrook? Any thoughts?

  3. Jeff says:

    Just read Stealing Signals article by @BenGretch, so maybe I'll throw Buck Allen into the discussion. The GLSP seems to like him as much as Dion Lewis with perhaps better upside.

  4. I think that you should start Digss for sure. I'm not really sure what to make of Woods. He was absolutely tearing it up, but it's hard to anticipate what things will look like for the Rams upon his return. For this reason, I'd be hesitant to roll him out into a playoff matchup. I think there's also a level of uncertainty with Lewis. The Patriots' backfield is always a guessing game and in a contest with the Steelers, I think there are a number of game plans the team could follow. So the potential for a complete dud is there, more so than with the other options. Evans projects well across the recent game slider, with the exception of limiting to two or below, and though the last two weeks are scary, I don't think they're representative of what we should expect from him. If it were my team, I'd leave him in the lineup. I'm tempted to tell you to use Allen in the flex, but I feel that with how he and Collins are being used, you may need him to get the end zone to outperform the receivers. Of the remaining options, I like Westbrook the best. From a model perspective, he has a lot going for him this week.

  5. Jeff says:

    Thanks, @dcaban, for the advice. Saw that Rudolph is out this week, so hopefully that helps Diggs get rolling. The matchup for Westbrook looks good and Hurns is out, so hopefully he gets plenty of targets, too. My hope is that the Bucs get back to feeding Evans. Gotta run with your horses, I suppose. I made it to 11-2 with a first round bye for a reason, and that did not include sitting Diggs and Evans. In RotoViz we trust!

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