Stealing Signals Week 15: NFC Advanced Stats
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Stealing Signals is your Week 15 look at snaps, touches, game flow, efficiency, and everything in between. As always, check the archives for more information on teams or players not covered here. As we approach the end of the season, I’m trying to be a little more focused with the blurbs as well. To that end, if you want my take on a player or situation I omitted, tag me in the comments or on Twitter.
Atlanta FalconsSnap Notes: Tevin Coleman – 32% (tied season low; concussion occurred very late) Key Stat: Julio Jones – 0.31 target share since Week 5 bye On the postgame show last Thursday night, everyone rushed to talk up the Falcons and how they battled back to win a game they led early and trailed late. The ESPN headline was, “Ryan Struggles Early, Falcons Rise Late.” I mean, I do get it. But pretending like the Saints offense didn’t take a massive hit with Alvin Kamara’s concussion on the first drive was a little much. The Falcons were strong offensively, but probably should have been in a bigger hole after Matt Ryan threw interceptions on three consecutive drives “Falcons Win Despite Three Ryan Interceptions Because Saints Offense Collapses After Kamara Concussed on First Drive” doesn’t really work as a headline (and is probably a little on the nose anyway). Anyway, Devonta Freeman out-carried Tevin Coleman 24 to nine, with neither back targeted. Coleman suffered a late concussion that didn’t really impact usage — the Falcons ran just six offensive plays after Coleman’s last touch — but his availability for Week 15 isn’t looking great. That’d mean even more Freeman on Monday night against the Bucs. Julio Jones easily led in targets with 11 on just 27 Ryan passes, and his 5-98 line is more impressive when put in the context of dealing with Marshon Lattimore all game. Mohamed Sanu continued to out-target Austin Hooper, and those two continued a trend of competing for the remaining targets. Sanu’s 8-6-83-1 line set a season-high in PPR points. Signal: Devonta Freeman – heavy Week 14 usage could go even higher if Tevin Coleman misses Week 15 Noise: Mohamed Sanu – 24.9 reFPOE1 since Week 8 (10th most in the NFL)
New Orleans SaintsSnap Notes: Mark Ingram – 81% (assumed workhorse role with Alvin Kamara out) Key Stat: Team – 52 plays, 306 total yards (season low)
- Receiving Fantasy Points Over Expectation (back)