Stealing Signals Week 15: AFC Advanced Stats
Get a free NFL subscription for 3 days.
Stealing Signals Week 15 provides your look at snaps, touches, game flow, efficiency, and everything in between. As always, check the archives for more information on teams or players not covered here. As we approach the end of the season, I’m trying to be a little more focused with the blurbs as well. To that end, if you want my take on a player or situation I omitted, tag me in the comments or on Twitter.
Cleveland BrownsSnap Notes: Josh Gordon – 91% (second highest for any Browns skill position player this season); Corey Coleman – 67% Key Stat: Josh Gordon – 0.76 WOPR1 over last two games Josh Gordon didn’t catch any second half passes in Week 14, but there were mitigating factors. While playing with a lead, Cleveland threw just 10 passes in the second half and overtime, opting to run 18 times. It was a windy game, they have an inaccurate quarterback, and they had a solid lead, so they leaned on Isaiah Crowell and tried to bleed out their first win.2 Meanwhile, Gordon put up a 3-69-1 receiving line on four first-half targets, including a 38-yard reception on the Browns’ first play from scrimmage. He finished with 120 air yards on six targets, and our two-game sample now has him at a Weighted Opportunity Rating of 0.76, which for reference only Antonio Brown, DeAndre Hopkins, and A.J. Green have exceeded this season. Oh, and there’s this.
Yes, Kizer has accuracy issues, but we shouldn’t allow outlier rates like an extremely low percentage of catchable balls to dictate future expectations, particularly when the player has been productive despite it and has phenomenal opportunity metrics. There are no concerns with Gordon. He’s hitting the upper echelon of what you could expect from him given his two matchups have been against a phenomenal secondary and then a wind game with game script that didn’t favor his skill set (or the passing game generally). All that said, Corey Coleman did have a bounce back game and should also be expected to contribute. He had exactly half the air yards of Gordon on the same number of targets, but that was his lowest aDOT of the season. It remains to be seen if Cleveland will use him in more of an underneath role or that was wind-impacted variance. Signal: Josh Gordon – phenomenal usage indicators Noise: Isaiah Crowell – season-high 19 carries, 13 of which came in the second half and overtime
Only 41% of Josh Gordon’s targets have been catchable – 4th-lowest of 78 WR with 12+ targets during the last month.— Pat Thorman (@Pat_Thorman) December 11, 2017