Advice

Stealing Signals Week 14: AFC Advanced Stats

Stealing Signals Week 14 provides your look at snaps, touches, game flow, efficiency, and everything in between. As always, check the archives for more information on teams or players not covered here. As we approach the end of the season, I’m trying to be a little more focused with the blurbs as well. To that end, if you want my take on a player or situation I omitted, tag me in the comments or on Twitter.  

Jacksonville Jaguars

Snap Notes: Leonard Fournette – 79% (season high, one week after a season low) Key Stat: Marqise Lee – 0.75 WOPR1 in Week 13 I’ve talked recently about Jacksonville throwing a little more in the red zone, and in Week 13 the Jaguars ran a ton of plays in that area. In the first half, Blake Bortles attempted four passes inside the 10, completing two for touchdowns. He also dropped back and scrambled for seven yards on a play from the 11. Leonard Fournette got just a single carry during those drives. In the second half, however, Fournette got three more tries in the 10-zone, scoring a TD. Fournette did play a season-high snap share and saw 20 carries, but he continued a stretch of reduced rushing efficiency since he missed two games in late October and early November. Truth told, his early-season rushing efficiency was boosted by a few long runs, so there’s concern here. He’s been under three yards per carry on 77 attempts over the past four games. He does have multiple receptions in each game, with at least three targets in each. His overall profile still includes a ton of touches, and the increased snap rate this week was certainly a positive. I’m hesitant to use him in DFS, though, given Jacksonville’s recent tendencies in the red zone and his continued efficiency issues. After Marqise Lee’s one-game dip in targets that was clearly attributable to a matchup with Patrick Peterson, he returned to his status as the No. 1 WR for Jacksonville, posting a 10-7-86-1 line. Dede Westbrook maintained a high share as well, going 9-6-78. I say with such certainty that Lee is the No. 1 because he’s led the team in WOPR in nine of 12 games this season, including two of the three games Westbrook has been active. Westbrook has seen strong opportunity as well, though, and Bortles has been throwing more overall since Fournette missed two games. Signal: Blake Bortles – 37.25 pass attempts per game since Leonard Fournette’s return (28.3 before Fournette’s two-game absence) Noise: Target splits that include the Arizona game to argue Dede Westbrook is the Jaguars’ No. 1 WR  

Indianapolis Colts

Snap Notes: Chester Rogers – 78%; Marlon Mack – 43%; Frank Gore – 32% (season low) Key Stat: Frank Gore – season low in snaps, just two touches after hitting milestone
  1. Weighted Opportunity Rating, which balances team share of targets and team share of air yards.  (back)

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By Ben Gretch | @YardsPerGretch | Archive

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