Advice

Michael Thomas Goes Supernova and 2 More Bold Predictions for Week 15

“I never saw it coming.” In this bold predictions series, we’ll look at weekly matchups, using history as a contextual backdrop – as well as in-season trends – in order to unearth unexpected events that have a chance at coming true. Bold predictions are a funny thing. Last week, my gut told me that the Saints-Falcons game was too hyped for fantasy purposes and would end up being a total bust. However, once I dug in and did some research, the data was telling me a different story, so I went the other way and predicted a fantasy bonanza. Even though the numbers convinced me otherwise, I should have listened to my gut, as instead of five No. 1 positional finishes for the week from that game, we got two—Michael Thomas and Mohamed Sanu. That was a miss. And so was:
  • Josh Gordon. Gordon got us a TD on a sick grab but fell 81 yards short of the predicted 150.
  • Jason Witten. Again, we got a TD, but not nearly enough yardage to make him a top-three TE on the week.
With two weeks left in the fantasy season, we’re now five for 43 on predictions for an 11.6 percent hit rate. I would love to hit a few more to get to 15 percent before the end of the year.

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By Cort Smith | @cortnall | Archive

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