DFS (Daily Fantasy Sports)

FanDuel GPP Value Plays – Week 13

Each week I explore cheap players whose FanDuel price does not match the ceiling they offer, making them GPP value plays. In FanDuel GPPs, I recommend cheap players who will offer at least 3x value, providing salary relief for your remaining roster spots. These recommendations are for players on the main slate.

In general, I will be looking at quarterbacks priced below $7,500, running backs and wide receivers below $6,500, and tight ends below $5,500. It is important to remember that these value recommendations are for GPPs (and not cash games), so we’re aiming for a hit rate above 20 percent.

Week 12 Review

  • Week 12 Results:1 Total = 2/7 (29 percent), QB = 1/1, RB = 1/2, WR = 0/3, TE = 0/1.
  • Year-to-Date Results:
    • Total = 29/84 (35 percent)
    • QB = 7/12 (58 percent)
    • RB = 10/24 (42 percent)
    • WR = 8/36 (22 percent)
    • TE = 4/12 (33 percent)

Week 13 GPP value plays

QUARTERBACKS

  • Jameis Winston ($7,300)

3x GPP Value Threshold: 21.9 fantasy points.

Vegas: Tampa Bay is a two-point road favorite in Green Bay in a 45 total with an implied team total of 23.5.

Caveat: I generally like to avoid QBs in their first week back from injury, especially when they are on the road in a cold weather environment. But I have also learned that when I like the spot for a team’s pass-catchers, I should also like the QB that week as well.

Opportunity: I love this spot for Mike Evans, and I think it will be fairly contrarian to stack him with Winston this week. Winston has 18-plus FanDuel points in four of the seven games he’s finished, and he has a strong Game Level Similarity Projection (#brand):

Screen Shot 2017-11-30 at 8.12.24 PM

Matchup: Against teams not named the Bears (29th in points per game with 16.1), Green Bay has allowed an average of 25.7 points per game, which would rank sixth most. The Packers are allowing the 16th-most fantasy points to QBs this season, but that number has jumped up to the sixth most over the past four weeks – Matthew Stafford and Ben Roethlisberger each threw for over 350 yards and two and four TDs, respectively, while Mitchell Trubisky and Joe Flacco managed one TD a piece. Additionally, Green Bay is ranked 26th in explosive pass rate, which could lead to splash plays for Winston and the passing game.

  • Others Considered: Marcus Mariota ($7,400) – Mariota is facing the Texans who are allowing the second-most fantasy points to QBs as well as the fifth-most rushing yards to the position.

Running Backs

  • Dion Lewis ($6,300)

3x GPP Value Threshold: 18.9 fantasy points.

Vegas: New England is a nine-point favorite (third highest) on the road in Buffalo in a 48 total (tied highest) with an implied team total of 28.5 (second highest). Although Lewis is on the road, he checks boxes as a heavy favorite with a high implied team total.

Opportunity: Lewis has at least 14 touches in five straight games, including 15 red zone touches during that span. Although Rex Burkhead scored two TDs last week, the fantasy points could easily swing in favor of Lewis this week. Lewis rushed for over 100 yards, and on Burkhead’s two-yard TD, Lewis actually gained five yards on the previous carry from the seven-yard line. Regardless, there is enough opportunity for both RBs to thrive in this offense.

Matchup: Since Buffalo traded Marcell Dareus, they have been throttled by opposing RBs – two TDs to Raiders (Week 8) and Jets RBs (Week 9), five TDs to Saints RBs (Week 10), and two TDs to Chargers RBs (week 11), before finally stuffing ice cold Kareem Hunt. The Bills are allowing the third-most fantasy points, eighth-most yards per carry (4.3), and most rushing TDs (13) to the position on the season.

  • Jerick McKinnon ($6,100) 

Vegas: Minnesota is a three-point road underdog in Atlanta in a 47 total with an implied team total of 22.

Opportunity: While Latavius Murray has been the more productive RB in recent weeks with more red zone attempts (18 vs seven over the last four weeks), McKinnon is still averaging 17.25 opportunities per game over the past four. McKinnon is also averaging 5.5 targets per game compared to Murray’s one target per game, and you attack Atlanta with pass-catching RBs.

Matchup: Atlanta is allowing the 18th-most fantasy points to RBs but have allowed the fifth-highest yards per carry (4.4), fifth-most targets (92), and third-most receptions (69) to the position.

  • Others Considered: Jamaal Williams ($5,700) – If Aaron Jones is inactive, Williams becomes a FanDuel GPP value play. He is averaging 19.6 carries and four targets per game over the last three. At $5,700, Williams would see nearly all of the RB touches, be the goal line back, and be involved in the passing game.

Wide Receivers

  • Davante Adams ($6,500)

3x GPP Value Threshold: 19.5 fantasy points.

Vegas: Green Bay is a two-point home underdog against Tampa Bay in a 45 total with an implied team total of 21.5.

Opportunity: Since Week 6, Adams leads the Packers in targets (8.7 per game) with a 28 percent target share, air yards (40 percent market share of the team’s air yards), TDs (three), and target & output adjusted receiving success (TOARS). His advantage in those metrics separates even further when looking at his share since the team’s bye in Week 8 and also includes the highest aDOT on the team (11.1).

Matchup: Tampa Bay has allowed the most fantasy points, second-most targets, most receptions, most yards, third-most air yards, and fourth-most receiving TDs to opposing WRs. They rank 31st in explosive pass rate, while allowing the second-most receptions of 20-plus yards (43) and 40-plus yards (10). Over the last three weeks, the Buccaneers have been gashed by Julio Jones (44.8 FanDuel points), Kenny Stills (27.5 FanDuel points), and Robby Anderson (16.5 FanDuel points). On the road, Tampa Bay has allowed 31 points per game.

  • Cooper Kupp ($6,300)

3x GPP Value Threshold: 18.9 fantasy points.

Vegas: The LA Rams are seven point road favorites in Arizona in a 45 total with an implied team total of 26.

Opportunity: While it’s just a one game sample, in the Week 12 where Robert Woods didn’t play, Kupp led the team with 11 targets (25 percent target share) and was second in air yards (95; 22 percent market share of the team’s air yards), which he converted into eight receptions for 116 yards. He also saw one red zone target. While Kupp was a big beneficiary of Woods being inactive (who will be inactive again this week), Kupp has averaged eight targets and 1.8 red zone targets per game over the last five games.

Matchup: In their matchup earlier this season, Kupp had four receptions for 51 yards and a TD on 10 targets and five red zone targets (!). Arizona is allowing the ninth-most fantasy points to opposing WRs, and the majority of that production has gone away from Patrick Peterson (who Kupp will avoid). The Cardinals are especially vulnerable to slot WRs – Doug Baldwin (95 yards), Kupp (TD), Nelson Agholor (93 yards, TD), and Golden Tate (107 yards).

  • Dede Westbrook ($4,700)

Vegas: Jacksonville is a 9.5-point home favorite against the Colts in a 41 total with an implied team total of 25.25.

Opportunity: Finally returning to the active roster two weeks ago, Westbrook is dominating the Jacksonville passing game with a 25 percent target share (16 targets) and 41 percent market share of the team’s air yards (173 air yards). Despite having similar target and air yard shares as Adam Thielen, Alshon Jeffrey, and Mike Evans, Westbrook has scored just 12.1 FanDuel points compared to Thielen’s 34.2, Jeffrey’s 38.8, and Evans’ 22.5 points over the last two weeks. With all that opportunity and at this near-minimum price tag, Westbrook could be in for a breakout game against the Colts.

Matchup: Indianapolis is allowing the eighth-most fantasy points, seventh-most targets, and seventh-most air yards to opposing WRs. They have been burned by big plays – 48 receptions of 20-plus yards (most), 10 receptions of 40-plus yards (second most), and are 32nd in explosive pass rate. This beatable secondary will also be without starting CB Rashaan Melvin (hand).

  • Others Considered: Zay Jones ($4,500) – Jones is averaging 7.3 targets per game over his last six games and has seen seven red zone targets over that span, yet he is the stone minimum. Kelvin Benjamin will also be inactive this week.

Tight Ends

  • Hunter Henry ($5,400)

3x GPP Value Threshold: 16.2 fantasy points.

Vegas: The LA Chargers are 14-point home favorites against the Browns in a 44 total with an implied team total of 29.

Opportunity: In games where Henry has five or more targets, he has 70 receiving yards or a TD in six of seven games and saw at least one red zone target in six of those seven games as well. Henry has a 64 percent success rate (first among TEs with at least 35 targets) and Rivers has a 123.3 rating when targeting Henry (second among TEs with at least 35 targets).

Matchup: Are the Browns playing this week? Yes. Does the opponent’s team have an active TE on the roster? Yes. Play that TE. Cleveland funnels production through the air, especially to TEs – while they are second in rush DVOA and 27th in pass DVOA, they are 32nd against TEs. The Browns have allowed the second-most fantasy points, second-most targets, most receptions, seventh-most receiving yards, and the second-most TDs to opposing TEs, including a TD to a TE in four straight games.

  • Others Considered: Jared Cook ($5,500) – Similar logic to Henry – Are the Giants playing this week? Yes. Does the opponent’s team have an active TE on the roster? Yes. Play Jared Cook. The Giants are the only team allowing more fantasy points to the position than the Browns, and Cook will likely be the No. 1 pass-catching option for the Raiders this week. But Cook will also likely be the highest-owned TE this week, and I don’t think Jared Cook chalk week has ever worked out.

Find me on Twitter @Michael_Dubner for more fantasy football and FanDuel talk.

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  1. Cash line for Week 12 = 140.88 points, value success formula = (6667/Player’s Salary)^1/3 * 2.3  (back)
By Michael Dubner | @Michael_Dubner | Archive

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