Dollars Per Opportunity: Mike Evans Smash Spot
Opportunity, opportunity, opportunity — that’s what fantasy football is all about. Each week I aggregate projections from around the internet and find the best DFS values from a dollar-per-opportunity perspective.
I took a bath in DFS last week as I hit multiple landmines, especially at the wide receiver and tight end positions. Again, I’m scoring my picks whether they hit value on either site which is ~2.5x on DraftKings and ~2x on FanDuel.
DraftKings: 3-6 (80-66 overall)
FanDuel: 3-3 (57-63 overall)
You can check out the season primer for a brief description of what to expect. I’ll be updating the Google Doc (see link below) every Friday for the article and then again late Saturday to adjust for any injury news. Be sure to check it out before you finalize your lineups.
Now, let’s get to the Week 16 plays!
Matthew Stafford | 34.7 Opp Score | $6,200 DK; $7,900 FD
There’s no doubt the Bengals are mailing it in as the season draws to a close, while the Lions find themselves in the heat of a race for a wild card spot. Translation: I think this matchup is easier than it looks on paper. That said, the real appeal with Matthew Stafford is his value. He’s projected for the third-highest opportunity score but is priced as QB11 on DraftKings and QB7 on FanDuel.
Jameis Winston | 34.6 Opp Score | $5,700 DK; $7,100 FD
While Jameis Winston will be without O.J. Howard and DeSean Jackson this week, he still has Mike Evans and the uber-athletic rookie Chris Godwin against a Panthers secondary that has been a sieve since Week 8. I expect the Bucs to air it out – they are 10-point underdogs on the road – and there’s plenty of value with Winston’s fourth-highest projected opportunity while being priced as the QB14 on DraftKings and QB18 on FanDuel.
Christian McCaffrey | 29.0 Opp Score | $6,400 DK
Christian McCaffrey is the perfect play in DraftKings’ PPR format due to his low-carry, high-target volume. The Panthers’ 28.5 implied point total is one of the highest this week, which means there will be plenty of scoring opportunities. McCaffrey’s price on DraftKings hasn’t caught back up to his role. He’s the only running back with a top-10 opportunity score who’s priced outside the top 10.
James White | 17.2 DK Score; 13.9 FD Score | $4,100 DK; $4,700 FD
The Bills are an ideal matchup for any RB, and with Rex Burkhead out this week you can expect an even more expanded role for James White. White was already getting more snaps in recent weeks, but he and Dion Lewis should see a massive increase in workload while Mike Gillislee handles goal-line and short-yardage work. White’s a viable play on both sites due to the tremendous value he brings to the table and the plus matchup.
Kendall Wright | 13.4 DK Score; 11.0 FD Score | $3,800 DK; $5,100 FD
Credit goes to the RotoDoc himself, Nick Giffen, for putting me on this play this week. Kendall Wright has been the top receiver in Chicago over the last two weeks with 24 targets and a 0.71 WOPR1. It’s been well-documented that the Browns’ defensive schemes leave the middle of the field wide open because they love to play one safety very deep and this is confirmed by looking at RACR2 allowed by depth. Given Wright plays 70 percent of his snaps out of the slot, you can expect him to have plenty of success in the middle of the field this week.
Mike Evans | 19.2 DK Score; 15.8 FD Score | $6,400 DK; $7,000 FD
Without Howard and Jackson, Mike Evans’ massive opportunity share should be similar to what we saw last week. In a game where both Howard and Jackson left early, Evans saw a 44 percent share of the team’s air yards as well as a 0.65 WOPR. Add in that Evans’ price decreased $400 on DraftKings and only increased $100 on FanDuel, and he’s almost a must play across the board.
Dede Westbrook | 13.7 Opp Score | $5,900 FD
DFS players are hurting from Dede Westbrook last week. Not only did he put up a dud, but the entire Jaguars pass offense around him had a banner day. Westbrook saw just two targets — in a game where Marqise Lee left early — despite averaging nine targets per game over the prior three weeks. F-l-u-k-e. That said, Westbrook is in another great spot and is not priced appropriately, especially on FanDuel where he’s priced as the WR36 despite having the 19th-ranked opportunity score.
Travis Kelce | 14.1 Opp Score | $7,000 FD
On FanDuel, Travis Kelce comes in as the top value at the tight end position. This tells us two things: 1) Kelce is really good at football and 2) the tight end position is a mess this week. Don’t overthink it and plug in the stud.
Austin Seferian-Jenkins | 10.9 Opp Score | $2,700 DK
On DraftKings, there’s a little more value and no one jumps off the page as a GPP play more than Austin Seferian-Jenkins. First, the Jets are facing the Chargers great secondary, so if they are going to move the ball in the air you can expect some more targets funneled towards ASJ. This would explain why ASJ has averaged just three targets per game over the last three weeks, but he’s projected for the 13th-highest opportunity. That makes him a borderline TE1, and he’s priced as a borderline TE2.