DFS (Daily Fantasy Sports)

FanDuel NFL Cash Plays – Week 13

The number 13 scares a lot of people, but not The Fantasy Football Ghost! Join us as he shares his Week 13 FanDuel cash plays.

You’d be hard-pressed to have a bad week if you played Julio Jones last week. His 5.74 times value in FanDuel is one of the highest I’ve ever seen. Then, when you throw in Rob Gronkowski, who came in at just a hair under three times value, you have the beginning of an incredibly dominating day. However, beyond that, there wasn’t much that fell the way I had projected. Paxton Lynch got injured, Jacoby Brissett was mediocre, Mark Ingram was the wrong Saints running back to own, and Jared Cook somehow managed just a single catch for a single yard. Daily fantasy sports is nothing if not frustrating. Overall, excluding Lynch due to his injury, I managed my second consecutive 1.75 times value performance. To say I’m disappointed is an understatement. Maybe the number 13 will be lucky for me as we head into Week 13:

FanDuel Cash Plays for Week 13

Quarterbacks

Philip Rivers – $8,000

Philip Rivers posted 434 passing yards and three passing touchdowns on Thanksgiving. He now faces a Cleveland defense giving up the ninth-most FanDuel points to opposing quarterbacks and is doing so with 10 days of rest. The Browns might be getting Josh Gordon back but, unfortunately for them, he doesn’t play defense. Cleveland has the sixth-worst defensive DVOA in the NFL against the pass. The Browns are allowing an average of two passing TDs per game, tying them for the second-most allowed. Opposing QBs are maintaining an average quarterback rating of 104.5, the third-highest of all defenses, while 46 percent of all passes thrown by Cleveland’s opponents are successful, the eighth-highest rate in the NFL.

Trevor Siemian – $6,200

I must have a soft spot in my heart for Denver QBs as Trevor Siemian is the second one I’ve suggested over the past two weeks. Siemian isn’t the kind of signal caller you expect to post a 40-point game, but his match-up against Miami is tantalizing. The Dolphins’ defense ranks near the bottom of nearly every statistic that measures success against the pass. They have the second-worst defensive DVOA, allow the second-most passing TDs per game, and allow opposing QBs to rack up a 107.9 average passer rating. To make matters worse, Miami allows 48 percent of all passes to be successful, the seventh-most of all defenses. Siemian isn’t a sexy pick but, between his price and opportunity, he provides a whole lot of value.

Running Backs

Jordan Howard – $7,500

I haven’t featured Jordan Howard through the first 12 weeks of the season but that ends now. The 49ers present one of the better opportunities of the season. San Francisco is allowing the most FanDuel points to opposing running backs, due in large part to giving up the third-most rushing yards per game and the sixth-most rushing TDs. The 49ers also have the 10th-worst defensive DVOA against the rush. Things don’t get much better for San Francisco as they try to defend RB position through the air, allowing an average of 9.6 targets for 53.8 receiving yards, earning them the third-worst defensive DVOA against RBs via the pass. Meanwhile, Chicago is amassing the eighth-most rushing yards per game and has the 12th-best rushing DVOA.

Rex Burkhead – $5,900

A significantly cheaper option than Howard, but don’t let this price fool you, his value is significant. Rex Burkhead faces a Bills defense that is allowing the third-most FanDuel points to RBs and who has the league’s sixth-worst defensive DVOA against the rush. Buffalo is allowing an average of 1.6 rushing TDs per game, most in the league. The Bills have found most of their trouble when RBs break into the second level, allowing an average of 1.35 rushing yards per attempt, the eighth-most yards in the NFL. Conversely, the Patriots have found great success in breaking into the second level with their rushes, gaining 1.29 yards per attempt or sixth-best. New England is also successful on 56 percent of all their rushes, the second-best rate of all teams.

Wide Receivers

Mike Evans – $7,500

Things are looking up for Mike Evans. His QB is returning this week, he just saw the most targets of the season, and he has the Green Bay defense as his next opponent. The Packers could be the best matchup Evans has all season. First, Green Bay has the third-worst defensive DVOA against opposing WR1s, allowing an average of 9.1 targets per game and 88.5 receiving yards. The Packers are allowing the third-most FanDuel points in the league to wide receivers and the eighth-most receiving yards. Opponents are able to complete 56 percent of all passes targeting the WR position (third-highest). Additionally, each WR target yields Packers opponents an average of 8.8 yards, the fourth-highest total in the league.

Demaryius Thomas – $6,700

For many of the same reasons that I’m suggesting Trevor Siemian, it also makes a lot of sense to add Demaryius Thomas to your lineup. As I established earlier, Miami is poorly equipped to stop the pass. Their ability to stop WR1s is all but lacking, as they have the league’s fourth-worst defensive DVOA against this position. Additionally, Miami is giving up two passing TDs per game and 58 percent of all passes thrown to the wide receiver position are completed, the highest percentage in the NFL. Each passing attempt thrown to a WR nets Dolphins opponents an average of 9.1 yards (second-most). Denver, meanwhile, targets their WRs on 64 percent of all pass attempts, and Thomas himself has the 12th-most receptions per game among all WRs.

Tight Ends

Benjamin Watson – $4,800

Benjamin Watson may very well hold the title as the least expensive player I’ve ever mentioned in this column. His price tag will likely scare more than a few owners away, but his matchup against Detroit screams value. The Lions are allowing an average of 9.8 yards per pass attempt to tight ends, the most of any defense. Detroit ranks No. 31 against TEs in DVOA and is allowing an average of 6.8 targets per game and 64.8 receiving yards. The Lions are also giving up the seventh-most FanDuel points to the position. Watson need only hit 9.6 FanDuel points to double his value, a total easily attainable against Detroit’s defense.

Hunter Henry – $5,400

Cleveland is a really bad team. However, they are exceptionally bad at defending against the TE position. Enter Hunter Henry, who has carved out a nice role and is poised to seriously outplay his FanDuel price. The Browns are ranked dead last in defensive DVOA against TEs, allowing an average of 8.5 targets and 64.0 receiving yards. TEs are targeted on 27 percent of all pass attempts against Cleveland, the second-highest rate in the league. Additionally, 58 percent of all passes to the position are successful, also the second-highest percentage. Dave Caban’s Week 13 Projections also point to a very strong outing from Henry.

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By The Fantasy Football Ghost | @TheFFGhost | Archive

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