Dollars Per Opportunity: Can You Diggs It?
Opportunity, opportunity, opportunity — that’s what fantasy football is all about. Each week I aggregate projections from around the internet and find the best DFS values from a dollar-per-opportunity perspective.
I didn’t have the best week with picks as I fell victim to the Kareem Hunt (0.5x on DK; 0.4x on FD) and Doug Baldwin (0.6x on DK; 0.4x on FD) grenades. However, I nailed Russell Wilson (3.4x on DK; 2.7x on FD), Zay Jones (3.1x on DK; 2.1x on FD) and Julius Thomas (3.8x on DK; 1.5x on FD) so it wasn’t all bad. Again, I’m scoring my picks whether they hit value on either site which is ~2.5x on DraftKings and ~2x on FanDuel.
DraftKings: 4-4 (69-48 overall)
FanDuel: 2-5 (45-50 overall)
You can check out the season primer for a brief description of what to expect. I’ll be updating the Google Doc (see link below) every Friday for the article and then again late Saturday to adjust for any injury news. Be sure to check it out before you finalize your lineups.
Now, let’s get to the Week 13 plays!
Cam Newton | 38.0 Opp Score | $6,800 DK; $8,100 FD
I’m taking a break from recommending Russell Wilson, not because I’m tired of being right, but because it’s just unfair. Instead, I’m looking at Cam Newton as another quarterback who is getting dangerously close to Wilson’s level of involvement in his offense even though he’s only a fraction of the talent.
Since he broke out against New England on October 1st, Newton has averaged 8.6 rush attempts and the Saints have allowed a 60 percent success rate (ranks 28th) on runs vs. quarterbacks over the last six weeks.1 We all remember the crazy 41-38 matchup from 2015 where Newton put up 331 passing yards, five touchdowns, one interception, and 49 rushing yards. In his other two matchups in New Orleans since 2014, Newton has averaged 274 pass yards, 2.5 TDs, 0.5 INTs, 42 rushing yards, and one rushing TD.
Carlos Hyde | 30.4 DK Score; 26.9 FD Score | $5,900 DK; $7,000 FD
As long as Carlos Hyde continues to be priced as a borderline RB1 while receiving clear RB1 opportunity I’ll keep playing him. The QB change in San Francisco should help the offense be more efficient, which is a plus for Hyde, and he’s coming off a game where he saw 13 targets and now has over 10 targets in two of his last three games. Over the last six weeks, the Bears have ranked 23rd versus the run and 28th versus running backs in the pass game in regards to success rate allowed.
Marshawn Lynch | 20.4 DK Score; 18.9 FD Score | $4,800 DK; $6,200 FD
With Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree out this week you can expect the Raiders to lean more on the run game, and as a nine-point, home favorite Marshawn Lynch is a top candidate to reach 20-touches this week. Pair that information with his price and you have one of the better bargains on the slate. The narrative cherry on top of the stat sundae is that he’s facing a reeling Giants team that could be ready to quit on their coach.
Alex Collins | 20.5 DK Score; 19.5 FD Score | $4,500 DK; $5,900 FD
The Lions run defense is reeling, having let up a rushing TD in six straight games, and as long as Alex Collins is healthy on Sunday, he should be a safe bet to keep the streak alive. Even with Danny Woodhead back last week, Collins saw 20 carries and seven targets.
Mike Evans | 20.3 DK Score; 16.7 FD Score | $7,100 DK; $7,500 FD
There is no team that has been worse at stopping opposing wide receivers than the Green Bay Packers, and with Jameis Winston back under center, this should be a coming out party for Mike Evans. There have only been two weeks since Nov. 15, 2015 where Evans was priced under $7,200. One game was versus Patrick Peterson and the other was against the 2016 Denver Broncos defense.
Stefon Diggs | 17.2 DK Score; 14.2 FD Score | $6,200 DK; $7,000 FD
If I’m locking in Evans this week, I’m uber-locking Stefon Diggs. Not that the matchup was scaring me away, but with Marcus Trufant out for the Falcons, Diggs has a much easier path to success. He has quietly been putting up solid receiving lines despite facing off against tough matchups the last three weeks. His teammate Adam Thielen has been getting all the glory living in the slot, but it’s Diggs’ turn to pop off in a shootout.
Demaryius Thomas | 19.5 DK Score; 16.1 FD Score | $5,300 DK; $6,700 FD
The only thing that will hold back both Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders ($4,900 DK; $6,500 FD) will be the Broncos offense. The matchup is too good, the target distribution is too narrow, and their prices are too cheap for them not to hit value this week. The Dolphins secondary ranks 29th versus WR in success rate allowed over the last six weeks.
Marqise Lee | 16.0 DK Score; 13.2 FD Score | $5,200 DK; $6,000 FD
Marqise Lee is coming off a game where he was shadowed by Patrick Peterson and saw just two targets. This week he gets a Colts secondary without top corner Rashaan Melvin, and in his five games prior to last week, he averaged 9.6 targets and 5.6 receptions. His opportunity score ranks 21st, but he’s priced as the WR29 on DraftKings and WR36 on FanDuel.
DeVante Parker | 13.8 DK Score; 11.3 FD Score | $4,500 DK; $6,100 FD
Another WR who is just grossly mispriced on both sites this week, DeVante Parker gets his guy Jay Cutler back and will see an easier matchup than the stats suggest. Aqib Talib is out due to suspension, and Chris Harris tends to live in the slot where he’ll likely shadow Jarvis Landry. Don’t be scared off by the matchup and when Cutler is under center, Parker has seen target totals in the 8-10 range on a regular basis.
Jack Doyle | 17.4 DK Score; 14.1 FD Score | $5,200 DK; $5,700 FD
If the Colts are going to make any noise on offense it will be through Jack Doyle. The only big hurdle standing in his way will be how the Colts offense line deals with the pass rush. If Jacoby Brissett can get a little time in the pocket, I envision a game similar to when Doyle saw 14 targets versus the Bengals a couple weeks ago. Everyone and their grandmother will be playing Jared Cook — yes, if you can get your grandmother to buy Bitcoin over Thanksgiving break you better be damn sure she’s playing DFS too — which makes Doyle a great GPP pivot.
Cameron Brate | 7.7 DK Score; 6.3 FD Score | $2,900 DK; $5,000 FD
With the return of Winston on Sunday it could mean the return of Cameron Brate touchdowns. It’s been a while since we’ve seen Brate have much success and a lot has to be due with his dwindling snap rate. Over the last four weeks Brate has played 58, 46, 62, and 48 percent of snaps while O.J. Howard has been hovering around 70 percent. Given his cheap price, you don’t need much for him to hit value, and he’s worth taking a chance on in GPPs in case he and Winston rekindle the fire that had Brate seeing 6-8 targets on a weekly basis.
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- Stats from SharpFootballStats.com. (back)