Advice

Tight End Streamers: Week 9

Welcome to Tight End Streamers Week 9. If you weren’t streaming before the injuries to Greg Olsen, Jordan Reed, Tyler Eifert, and Charles Clay. You probably are now. Especially with all of the byes. We’re glad to have you with us.

In a week with two truly outstanding fantasy performances at tight end … our streamers were not among them.

Things seemed to be starting well when Ben Watson found the end zone on Thursday night against the Dolphins, but he managed just 2.6 more points than the six that gave him. He eventually ended Week 8 as the TE13. Not disastrous, but still somewhat disappointing.

Tyler Kroft managed a single point more than Watson, as his five catches for 46 yards was good enough for TE11. As for Nick O’Leary, his 1.5 PPR points helped precisely nobody. So where do we go in Week 9?

As usual, we will be looking at three TEs who are owned in less than 50 percent of ESPN fantasy leagues. This means we will be forced to look away from Zach Ertz and his matchup with the Broncos or Evan Engram as he takes on the Los Angeles Rams. But I still have three solid options that should help owners in this upcoming slate of games, especially with the likes of Hunter Henry, Antonio Gates, Rob Gronkowski and Kyle Rudolph all on bye weeks.

Ownership figures correct as of time of writing

Jack Doyle (available in 60.1 percent of ESPN leagues)

With it looking increasingly likely that Andrew Luck won’t be making an appearance during the 2017 season, it is hard to get excited about anyone on this offense. But it should be noted that in the midst of the chaos, Jack Doyle has been close to a beacon of consistency. Now before anyone thinks about saying it, this not a case of chasing fantasy points. I am fully aware that Doyle posted a 30.1 fantasy day in Week 8. But while we cannot expect that type of performance every week, it is not as fluky as one may think. Doyle leads the team with 42 receptions, and ever since a three-target outing against the Rams in Week 1, he has been a focal point of the offense.

doyle

He’s seen at least five targets in all of his last six games, while two of his last three outings have seen him targeted more than ten times. The Colts are taking on the Texans this week, a team allowing the seventh-most fantasy points to TEs this season. They have given up three touchdowns in their last two games, including two to Jimmy Graham last week. TEs have snagged 38 receptions against the Texans, 10th most in the league, and only 10 teams have allowed more receiving yards to the position than the Texans. The RotoViz Game Level Similarity Projections, using Doyle’s last seven games as a guide, give him a 15.9-point ceiling in PPR formats. This would have been good for TE5 last week.

STD 1/2PPR PPR 1 1/2 PPR
Low 2.6 4.4 5.9 7.1
Median 5.8 8.3 10.6 12.9
High 9.7 12.2 15.9 19.9

Tyler Kroft (62.7 percent)

While not exactly blowing our doors off, it wouldn’t be fair to say that Tyler Kroft let us down in Week 8. His five catches and 46 yards were good for his second-highest totals all season, and if he’d found the end zone, we would be praising him from up on high. On the whole, it is difficult to be too down on what Kroft has delivered since Bill Lazor assumed offensive coordinator duties.

kroft 4-7

Kroft has seen at least four targets in every game and hasn’t caught less than four since Week 3. Kroft and the Bengals take on the Jaguars this week, and with A.J. Green, John Ross, and Brandon LaFell likely to be stymied by cornerbacks A.J. Bouye and Jalen Ramsey – and with the Bengals struggling to produce anything akin to a ground game – Kroft could offer Andy Dalton a welcome safety valve in the middle of the field. The Jags are allowing the 13th-most fantasy points to TEs in 2017, but only the 19th-most receptions and the fifth-fewest yards. They did allow the Colts TEs to catch eight passes against them in their last game before their bye, however.  There have also been three receiving TDs scored against them, and looking at Kroft’s GLSP projection, he may need to notch a fourth to return any high-end value.

STD 1/2PPR PPR 1 1/2 PPR
Low 1.3 1.8 2.3 2.8
Median 3.4 4.9 6.7 8.4
High 9.8 11.4 12.4 14.3

Vernon Davis (86.2 percent)

Injuries to players on either side of the Washington/Seattle game have propelled Vernon Davis into the streaming conversation. Jordan Reed is unlikely to play after suffering a hamstring injury against the Cowboys, while All-Pro safety Earl Thomas’s own hamstring injury makes his participation doubtful too. Truth be told, Davis has been a better player than Reed this season. Despite a nine percent target share, Davis has amassed 13 percent of the Redskins total air yards, just two percent less than Reed, who has enjoyed a 17 percent share. Davis was also one of the more productive TEs in the NFL between Weeks 3 and 7, a span in which Reed only really made a telling contribution in one game.

davis

Davis has had at least 58 receiving yards in four of his last five games and has seen at least four targets in at least four of those outings.

It is also impossible to ignore just how good Davis has been in games when he has been forced to fill in for the missing Reed over the last two seasons.

vernon

The Seahawks have not exactly been bleeding fantasy points to opposing TEs this season, but even with Thomas in the lineup, they have allowed five receptions to the position in five of their seven games so far. They have seen the eighth-most TE targets this season with 59, but have allowed just two TE receiving scores. With Washington’s receiver corps struggling for consistency and actual production, Kirk Cousins may find Davis a more appealing target than throwing into the teeth of the Seahawks cornerbacks. It is also worth pointing out that, of all TEs to have seen at least 20 targets, none of them are averaging more yards per reception than Davis’ tally of 18.4. His GLSP numbers are not great, but it should be noted that their calculations are based on the assumption that Jordan Reed will be playing.

STD 1/2PPR PPR 1 1/2 PPR
Low 0.7 1.2 1.7 2.2
Median 1.6 2.8 3.8 4.8
High 4.9 7.1 9.6 12.4

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By Neil Dutton | @ndutton13 | Archive

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