Advice

Week 9 Fantasy Projections: Sneaky Plays in Mack and Hurns

The RotoViz Game Level Similarity Projections help you make lineup decisions using historical matchups as your guide.

Week 9 is upon us, and it’s time to make start/sit and roster management decisions. Earlier in the week, we looked at preliminary GLSP projections derived from a model I pulled together. Let’s compare and contrast these results with the GLSP projections calculated by the RotoViz apps and identify players with a surprising range of outcomes.

As a reminder, GLSP projections are agnostic of a player’s situation, health, and external factors. They are compiled through the use of historical data to identify matchups between comparable players and defenses. How have running backs similar to Alex Collins fared against defenses similar to the Titans? These are the types of questions that GLSP attempts to answer. GLSP projections rely solely on historical data.

How’d We Do Last Week?

My quarterback selections yielded mixed results. Tyrod Taylor was solid, scoring 17 points and finishing as a starter. However, Deshaun Watson remained historic, scoring 32 points and exceeding expectations. I did better at running back. Joe Mixon managed to finish as a starter and the Panthers held Doug Martin under nine points. While Tyreek Hill did struggle as the week’s WR56, Nelson Agholor failed to impress. He scored just five and a half points, his low-end outcome. Fortunately, my Tyler Kroft call panned out. The GLSP forecasted a median outcome of 11 points. Kroft scored 10 and finished as a starter. George Kittle was expected to struggle and scored just four points.    

Week 9 Fantasy Projections

Quarterback

The preliminary GLSP liked Dak Prescott and Russell Wilson. The site GLSP also sees them as top-5 passers along with Drew Brees and Carson Wentz.1

The early GLSP liked Jared Goff’s ceiling against the Giants, but the site version is pessimistic. However, the site app thinks that Jacoby Brissett – projected with a surprisingly high ceiling by the early model – could outscore other streaming options such Andy Dalton, Eli Manning, and Derek Carr.

The site GLSP isn’t as pessimistic on Matt Ryan as my personal model, but it does project him with a floor of 15 points and a ceiling of just 20.

Surprisingly Good

The site GLSP is limited to three games of data for which C.J. Beathard was the 49ers starter but sees the potential for him to surprise against the Cardinals. Beathard is averaging less than 13 points per game, however, his low-end outcome is 15 points and ceiling 24! Of course, he’s not a guaranteed slam dunk. His comparables identified within the early GLSP averaged just 11 points per game. Still, it’s surprising to see such a solid range of outcomes. While I’d be hesitant to start him over the typical streaming suspects in shallow leagues, he’s a great option for those of you in two-QB or Superflex formats.

Site GLSP 4 Pt PTD 6 Pt PTD
Low 15 17
Median 18 22
High 24 27

Surprisingly Bad

You may have managed to acquire Marcus Mariota off waivers this week, but I’d caution against starting him. The early GLSP forecasts him with a floor of five points and ceiling of 15. The site app is also pessimistic. It projects a ceiling of 19 points against the Ravens. When filtered for 2017 games only, it raises his high-end projection to 20 points but also sets a floor of just 11. Jacksonville is the only team that has been a harder matchup for opposing quarterbacks this season. The GSLP views the team as a very similar defense to Baltimore. Mariota faced the Jaguars in Week 2 and was held to 13 points.

Site GLSP 4 Pt PTD 6 Pt PTD
Low 11 11
Median 15 17
High 20 23

Running Back

The site GLSP projects Leonard Fournette and Kareem Hunt as the highest scorers. Like the early GLSP, it’s also high on Carlos Hyde and Mark Ingram.

While Javorious Allen had a top-10 ceiling in the early model, the site app views him as a middle of the road option. Both models believe that Theo Riddick is worthy of starter consideration against the Packers. He doesn’t possess the strongest floor so he’ll be a better option for teams seeking upside.

The early GLSP placed Joe Mixon and Wayne Gallman in the top 36. The site version sees Gallman as a fringe flex play but projects Mixon with a ceiling of 18 points and top-24 median.

Devonta Freeman should remain in lineups but could be a dangerous DFS play. He carries a floor of one point into his matchup with the Panthers.

Surprisingly Good

Marlon Mack is trending in the right direction, and the GLSP expects him to carry this momentum forward. The Texans have been stingy against opposing rushers, but the GLSP places his high-end outcome at 19 points. While the early model wasn’t as bearish, it did forecast him with a range of outcomes similar to Frank Gore. As the Colts are substantial underdogs, they will likely be playing from behind. This bodes well for the rookie. He’s seen increased usage in the passing game with 11 targets in his last two games.

Site GLSP STD 1/2PPR PPR
Low 2 3 4
Median 6 8 10
High 11 15 19

Surprisingly Bad

Tevin Coleman is averaging 11 points per game as the RB23. However, the site GLSP places his ceiling at just 12 points against the Panthers. Even worse, he projects with a floor of only two points. The early model was more optimistic, forecasting a floor of seven points and ceiling of 13. Still, this was a weaker projection for Coleman than normal. He’ll likely merit flex consideration for most squads but should ride the pine for teams that need to swing for the fences.2

Site GLSP STD 1/2PPR PPR
Low 1 2 2
Median 3 5 7
High 9 10 12

Wide Receiver

The early GLSP loved DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller. The site version projects Hopkins with the week’s highest ceiling. While it isn’t as bullish on Fuller’s outlook, it does see an 18 point outing as a possibility.3

The Saints WRs project well within both models. Michael Thomas should feast on the Buccaneers secondary, and Ted Ginn and Brandon Coleman make solid options at WR3 or Flex positions.4

The GLSPs agree that  Mohamed SanuKenny Stills, and Cooper Kupp deserve WR3 or flex consideration based on their ceilings. The early model also liked Paul Richardson, but he projects unfavorably within the site app.

Demaryius Thomas could struggle and Doug Baldwin projects with a lower ceiling than normal.

Sterling Shepard, Kenny Stills, and Alshon Jeffery possess low floors but ceilings of 18 or more points.

Surprisingly Good

I don’t expect Allen Hurns to light the world on fire, but he could be a useful option for teams struggling with injuries and bye weeks. His comps within the early GLSP averaged nine points per game, and the site version sees the potential for 20. This holds when using defaults or filtering for 2017 only.

Site GLSP STD 1/2PPR PPR
Low 2 3 3
Median 3 5 6
High 16 18 20

Surprisingly Bad

Betting against Julio Jones is a dangerous proposition, but both GLSPs are leery of his outlook versus the  Panthers. In fact, the early model forecasts a ceiling of just four points and both limit his ceiling to 13. His range of outcomes improves when limiting the number of recent games searched, but it sure looks like he could be held in check. He should absolutely remain in redraft lineups, but for DFS purposes he may be a fade.

Site GLSP STD 1/2PPR PPR
Low 2 4 6
Median 6 9 12
High 8 10 13

Tight End

The early GLSP forecasted Travis Kelce and Jason Witten with ceilings of 23 points. The site app likes Witten but isn’t as optimistic. His high-end expectation is 15 points.

My model identified Marcedes Lewis as a streaming option for teams in need. Like most TEs, Lewis comes with a low floor but could find his way into the double-digits.

The early GLSP liked Tyler Higbee more than Austin Hooper and the site version agrees. Both could be considered for streaming purposes, but O.J Howard makes for a better option.

For the most part, this week’s ends are sandwiched together with similar ranges of outcomes. So much so that it was hard to find any surprisingly bad projections that stood out from the crowd.

Surprisingly Good

Jared Cook has had a couple of solid games and ranks 15th in points per game with nine. The site GLSP expects him to crush it this week and substantially raise this average. When filtering for any number of games, his ceiling remains at or above 25 points and his mid-range outcome stays above 11. The early GLSP wasn’t as enthusiastic – his comparables averaged eight points – but it’s hard not to like such a lofty projection. In the event that you have two TEs to choose between, roll with Cook. He’s also worth a look in daily contests given his safe median and significant upside.

Site GLSP STD 1/2PPR PPR 1 1/2 PPR
Low 0 0 0 0
Median 4 7 10 11
High 11 13 15 17

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  1. And the injured Watson.  (back)
  2. I hate mixing sports analogies. I apologize if you hate reading them.  (back)
  3. As explained in the intro, these projections do not take Watson’s absence into account.  (back)
  4. Please note that Coleman does, however, come with a very weak floor.  (back)
By Dave Caban | @DaveCabanFF | Archive

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