Week 10 Air Yards: The Best Wide Receivers to Buy Low

Each week I break out air yards data to find the wide receivers that stand the best chance to see an increase in their fantasy production. Last week the hit rate for the model was insane. I do not expect a repeat, but it does go to show there is real signal here. The model is built to uncover the best low-probability plays each week, not to identify the top scorers. The fact that it is doing the latter so consistently has more to do with the inherent volatility in WR performance than anything else. When a guy who is getting opportunity but underperforming it finally produces, it’s usually an explosion of points. Here’s this week’s list. The out-of-sample r-squared for the model this week (using a four-week rolling per game average for the explanatory variables) is 0.56.

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By Josh Hermsmeyer | @friscojosh | Archive

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  1. Dennis says:

    Oh man i thought the bye may have helped Diggs. How do you know he's still hurt?

  2. @JollyG804 according to rotoworld it's a "tooth" injury. bring out the novocaine...

  3. How says:

    Too much Halloween candy on the bye week. Tsk tsk tsk.

  4. How says:

    So is Thielen. As a Diggs owner (and not a Thielen owner), I'm rather displeased with the target distribution. Diggs looks way too good to get 6 targets a game. He deserves 8-12 looks. He'd be ridiculous with that load, no?

    Totally unrelated: I'm in a 10-team PPR keeper league. How crazy would I be to trade Dez Bryant away for Sterling Shepard? Bryant would be too expensive to keep, but Shepard would be 3% of my auction budget next year. Also, it seems possible Shepard outscores Bryant going forward, no? I'm in playoff contention, but I'm thinking this could be a move for today and the future.

  5. I would do this trade. Dez is banged up now and Dallas may struggle w/o Zeke. Even if they force feed him targets he will attract a lot of top CBs going forward.

    Shepard gets a ton of targets already. He might even get a better QB next year if Eli retires. Good play for me in a keeper league.

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