Week 10 Air Yards: The Best Wide Receivers to Buy Low

Each week I break out air yards data to find the wide receivers that stand the best chance to see an increase in their fantasy production. Last week the hit rate for the model was insane. I do not expect a repeat, but it does go to show there is real signal here. The model is built to uncover the best low-probability plays each week, not to identify the top scorers. The fact that it is doing the latter so consistently has more to do with the inherent volatility in WR performance than anything else. When a guy who is getting opportunity but underperforming it finally produces, it’s usually an explosion of points. Here’s this week’s list. The out-of-sample r-squared for the model this week (using a four-week rolling per game average for the explanatory variables) is 0.56.

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By Josh Hermsmeyer | @friscojosh | Archive