We’re late in the fantasy regular season and the shifting and shuffling in AFC backfields in showing no sign of subsiding. One of the best rookie backs in years was bewilderingly benched, while one of the biggest stars of the past decade had his best game in years. From Jacksonville to Oakland, there is plenty to cover, so let’s dive in.
This week was a good example of just how dependent the Ravens are on game script, as Alex Collins had nine touches to Javorius Allen’s three in the first half, but took a backseat to Allen in the second half with the Ravens playing catch-up. Ultimately, they both ended up at 14 touches, with Collins nearly doubling up on Allen in rush attempts.
Allen continues to carry a very valuable receiving role, sporting the second-highest receiving expected points (reEP) in the league in Week 9. He now has the third-highest reEP among all backs since Week 5, but as we mentioned last week, Danny Woodhead lurks and could throw a wrench in the works. Sell Allen while you still can and make sure Woodhead is rostered.
As for Collins, we can see just how game script dependent he is using our Game Splits App. He’s scoring at a significantly higher pace in games where the Ravens are favorites.
Collins’ role shouldn’t be affected by the return of Woodhead as much as Allen’s will be, and he’s also due for some positive TD regression. No RB in the league has more carries without finding the end zone than Collins.
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