Advice

Tuesday Trades: Week 10 Playoff Prep

Welcome back to Tuesday Trades, a weekly column that will highlight players to target today before their prices change tomorrow. That old Fitzmagic has me in its spell. That old Fitzmagic that you weave so well. Despite entering almost every season as a backup, Ryan Fitzpatrick has averaged 13.5 games played over the last nine years. On Sunday, he’ll notch his 117th career start–and first as a Buc–against none other than the Jets. Somebody better take a closer look at that Jameis Winston “acupuncture doll” Fitzpatrick keeps in his locker. This week I’m putting a little bit more focus on playoff preparation, whether your team is scrambling for a playoff spot, or you’ve got a bye all but locked up. One strategy I’m recommending for teams on the bubble who happen to have top QBs is flipping the QB for help elsewhere and adding one of the targets below. At wide receiver, I have some bounce-back candidates for needy teams, and a sell high for playoff-bound teams shedding risk. And at running back, as always, get them cheap. Here are some of the best buys and sells at each position.

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By Devin McIntyre | @devinmci | Archive

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  1. @TuddyRoosevelt Probably would hold Miller--even in standard, the targets he's getting have been solid, and the run game will probably see even more emphasis without Watson. If you're desperate at WR, I'm okay with it, but it's a pretty expensive upgrade.

    @HowFantasy I don't think so. Ingram has been excellent.

    @kdenigris I'm a little concerned that McCoy tweaked his groin injury, but I haven't seen any reports about it whatsoever, and he's historically been good at playing with minor injuries. I would probably try to confirm his practice participation, etc, this week before trading for him. I'm not worried about a game plan change, only concerned about his health.

    @jasonhumes Landry and Ingram seems more than fair for AJG. Hard to evaluate trades with that many players, but if the other team needs a TE badly, ASJ is a fine swap for DJax, and Julio/Crow are probably comparable to Green/Williams. I'd want the Julio side, but if they are worried about Julio's health, or that WR depth really helps in this league, maybe getting Sanders/Fuller compensates. Definitely not giving up too much, I don't think...Sanders/Fuller real question marks with their QB situations. I would probably take DJax out of the trade to help it go through, and take out whichever of Sanders/Fuller they don't want.

  2. My bigger fear has been Hunt's usage and whether or not KC's oLine is crumbling. His hot start was full of splash plays. If you look at the game splits app and filter it by week 1-4 and then 5-9, he's seeing similar rushing and passing work. His yards have dried up as have his TDs.

    That being said, I'm not too concerned about Julio. Maybe he's not hurt as badly as it seems and plays well. I think TD narratives are overblown and if the Falcons get it together they could score well.

    However, I like your idea that Hunt could be the FF MVP down the stretch. Maybe ask for a bit more, especially since Julio's had his bye week and Hunt has not.

  3. @JollyG804 As long as you can start 3 RBs, i think you have to consider it. KC has lost 3 of 4 somehow, which has hurt KH's snaps. There's some risk that the team wants to use him at closer to 50-60% snaps going forward, but he has only failed to catch 3+ passes once. On the other hand Julio has more TDs over the last 6 weeks (1).

    Adams I think is a real question mark right now, and GB's schedule is challenging. Alshon is very interesting because KC and PHI both have byes this week, which could make that appealing if the owner is a bubble team.

    I'm not especially worried about Julio's injury, beyond the constant baseline worry about Julio's health, so I think I would do the Hunt/Alshon trade, esp if you think it's preferable to start 3 RB. Adams might be a bit more of a full ppr guy, b/c I think the TDs will be down, and then Hundley will try to run for some rather than throw, if/when they get close.

    Moving on from Hunt and Adams, and targeting Julio and AJones are all fairly sharp moves, imo, but unless there is some specific news out of KC that we should be worried about Hunt health-wise, I think it's okay. GB and ATL offenses are probably both slightly underrated b/c expectations are so high, but KC & PHI still more exciting to me, because I have more faith in the coaching staff.

  4. Dennis says:

    OK great stuff guys thanks, it sounds like Devin, you'd pull the trigger if i can get alshon instead of Adams. i can start 2 flex each week and 2 of RB and wrs. so yeah, if i acquired hunt, id be planning on starting 3rbs. im not sure if that is optimal or not, i guess it may be more risky in aggregate, altho Julio already banged up may level off some of our RB vs WR injury %s.

    And Hasan, it sounds like might ask for a bit more. his next best guy is alshon and on bye so i figured maybe worth a counter.
    curious what @FF_Contrarian thinks. it sounded like you still may have some concerns re: Hunt's usage and a recent lack of effiency when u compared him to CMc on the pod. i know ur not usually high on alshon, or maybe diminishing ur chances of landing a bye week also, yeah?

  5. @Mychal I agree with you, I want McKinnon. In standard, CMC has the higher ceiling because if he does get those 15 carries a few more times, he'll probably surpass McKinnon (because he's getting so many opportunities as a pass catcher), but I think that's just a function of JStew leaving the game, and totally unreliable moving forward. And Cam/JStew are much more worrisome near the goal line than Murray/Ham.

    @JollyG804 If he's going to miss the playoffs, he probably needs depth not the best player in the deal, so this trade seems like a clear no for him (especially with Alshon being a little inflated right now). It would just be a risky for him to take advantage of the byes. A week ago you could've made this deal, when people thought Jones and Hunt were close in value, but now Jones looks like any other unreliable committee back.

    For what it's worth, I agree with @FF_Contrarian that Hunt's efficiency is a mirage (i mean he had sooo many huge plays early). I think the RB role in Reid's offense makes him very safe though, which is valuable, esp for a playoff team. I also think his athleticism is not a problem--he doesn't have elite explosion like Kamara or Chris Carson, but I think he's an above average athlete.

    For example, his height & weight-adjusted broad jump is above expectation, while Christian McCaffrey's is below expectation, even though CMC jumped 2 inches further.

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