Dollars per Opportunity: Carlos Hyde Checks All DFS Boxes
Opportunity, opportunity, opportunity — that’s what fantasy football is all about. Each week I aggregate projections from around the internet and find the best DFS values from a dollar-per-opportunity perspective.
Week 8 was very low scoring week so if you came out in the green then give yourself a pat on the back. I had a solid week of plays albeit the Bengals cash plays barely making value and both Cam Newton and Jameis Winston getting some bad luck with weather. I hit big with Russell Wilson, Lamar Miller, and Marlon Mack calls. Overall, it was another winning week for DraftKings plays (6-5) and another losing week with FanDuel plays (3-5). Let’s turn this FanDuel losing streak around, shall we?
Again, I’m scoring my picks whether they hit value on either site which is ~2.5x on DraftKings and ~2x on FanDuel.
DraftKings: 6-5 (54-38 overall)
FanDuel: 3-5 (35-40 overall)
You can check out the season primer for a brief description of what to expect. I’ll be updating the Google Doc (see link below) every Friday for the article and then again late Saturday to adjust for any injury news. Be sure to check it out before you finalize your lineups.
Now, let’s get to the Week 9 plays!
Russell Wilson | 37.4 Opp Score | $7,300 DK; $8,500 FD
Keep an eye on the weather, but a little rain never hurt anyone. Russell Wilson is coming off a monster fantasy performance and should see the same outlook heading into this weekend’s matchup vs. Washington. First, the Seahawks cannot run the ball and Washington has been fairly good vs. the run this season. Second, it looks like the Seahawks are gearing up for more passing with the acquisition of LT Duane Brown at the trade deadline. Even though Wilson is the highest priced QB of the slate, he comes in with the third-highest opportunity score. Load him up.
Jameis Winston | 36.7 Opp Score | $5,800 DK; $7,700 FD
If you’re looking to pay down at QB this week then Jameis Winston is probably your best bet. First, the Vegas lines are telling us that this should be a shootout. First, the game total has increased two points to 52 and the spread has moved 0.5 points to Tampa Bay (+6.5) despite New Orleans receiving 65 percent of spread bets. We call that reverse line movement. As long as Winston is healthy and able to throw the football, he should see enough success this weekend to return value on his price, which ranks 11th on DraftKings and ninth on FanDuel.
Carlos Hyde | 26.0 DK Score; 23.0 FD Score | $5,200 DK; $6,500 FD
With Matt Breida limited in practice all week, it’s conceivable for Carlos Hyde to become a true bell-cow back in every sense this weekend and at a major discount from the elite tier of RB. Not only will he get the carries, but in his two full games with C.J. Beathard under center he has seen eight and nine targets so he checks all the boxes (volume, targets, and price).
Damien Williams | 14.3 DK Score; 12.6 FD Score | $3,700 DK; $4,500 FD
Damien Williams is basically a free square for those playing in slates with the Sunday night game — he’s practically minimum price on DraftKings and is exactly min priced on FanDuel. Williams has seen at least two targets in five straight games and in a messy backfield situation I will always give the nod to the player who catches passes.
Christian McCaffrey | 20.3 Opp Score | $6,100 FD
The departure of Kelvin Benjamin opens up a ton of opportunity (19% target share and 27% MS Air, according to AirYards.com) so expect Christian McCaffrey to soak some of that up. It remains to be seen how the WR2 and WR3 situation shakes out, but we know McCaffrey has been very involved and productive in the passing game to this point. There’s no reason for that to not continue and he gets a great matchup against a Falcons defense that allows the fourth-most targets to running backs this season.
Marlon Mack | 15.5 Opp Score | $4,100 DK
Another week, another play of 20+ yards for Marlon Mack. If you want more detail on how the playing time is shaking out between Mack and Frank Gore I’ll direct you to this week’s AFC Stealing Signals. The bottom line is Mack is getting involved in the offense and moreso in the passing game, which I love for DraftKings. His price isn’t moving up so I’ll continue to ride him.
Jarvis Landry | 21.6 DK Score; 17.8 FD Score | $6,300 DK; $7,000 FD
With no more Jay Ajayi, will the Dolphins offense air it out on Sunday? It’s definitely within the range of outcomes for Sunday and with such a concentrated share of targets between the pass catchers it’s likely that Jarvis Landry sees his fifth-straight game with 10 or more targets even with the return of DeVante Parker. Landry’s opportunity score ranks first overall and he’s priced as the WR12 on both sites.
Trent Taylor | 9.4 DK Score; 7.8 FD Score | $3,000 DK; $4,500 FD
Hear me out. Five weeks ago when the 49ers and Cardinals faced off in the game known as the “game of many field goals” Trent Taylor saw 10 targets. Pierre Garcon, who is now out for the season, saw eight targets while being shadowed by Patrick Peterson and Aldrick Robinson, who should see plenty of Peterson this week, saw 12 targets. Also, Ben Gretch (@YardsPerGretch) made an astute observation on Twitter in thread form (I linked to it via his twitter handle) that since Beathard took over at QB all the wide receivers have suffered in terms of average depth of target. This isn’t great for both Marquise Goodwin or Robinson, but Taylor lives in that area of the field and at min price you could see a ton of targets to help him smash value.
Michael Thomas | 17.3 Opp Score | $7,600 FD
Michael Thomas has seen a steady stream of targets this season (8.9 per game), but hasn’t erupted for a huge game yet. If it’s ever going to come then this is the week. I outlined how this game shapes up to be a shootout above (read Winston, Jameis). Thomas is especially a bargain on FanDuel where he’s priced as the WR9, but has the third-ranked opportunity score. In GPPs, you can also fire up Ted Ginn Jr. ($5,000 DK; $5,700 FD) as there should be plenty of fireworks in this matchup.
Jeremy Maclin | 15.2 Opp Score | $4,000 DK
Jeremy Maclin isn’t an inspiring DFS play, but at $4,000 (WR45) and the 18th-ranked opportunity score he has the highest discrepancy in volume vs. price. It doesn’t take much to hit value at that price (four catches, 45 yards) and if he finds the end zone like he did last week he’ll smash expectations. Just keep tabs on his shoulder injury and whether he’ll be active on Sunday (he should be good to go).
T.Y. Hilton | 14.8 Opp Score | $4,900 DK
I liked T.Y. Hilton a lot more when DeShaun Watson was still healthy, but I think we should still see enough scoring in this game where Hilton will easily pay off his crazy low price. Even if you didn’t like the matchup, $4,900 for someone with his upside is a risk you take every time, but it just so happens that he has a great matchup this week too. When you get Hilton on the fast turf, watch out.
Vernon Davis | 11.6 DK Score; 9.4 FD Score | $4,100 DK; $5,400 FD
The Washington football team has complete carnage on the offensive side of the football. Not only are Jordan Reed and Niles Paul out, but Jamison Crowder is also a game-time decision. In addition, the offensive line is a mess, but Vernon Davis should see a massive uptick in targets this week, especially if Crowder is out. His opportunity scores should only increase as projections update with the recent inactives.