NBA DFS Plays Of The Day For Saturday November 4th
We have a small, four-game slate this Saturday evening, two of which have implied totals of over 210 points, while two games have implied totals below 201 points. In addition, all but one game has a nine-point spread or higher, but being that it is a such a small slate, we should not let a potential blowout determine whether we roster a player or not.
Dennis Smith Jr. $5,100 DK at Minnesota Timberwolves
There are some high-end players to pay up for tonight, so you will need salary relief to be able to fit some of them in. Dennis Smith Jr. is averaging 28.1 minutes per game this season and has a healthy 27.9 percent usage rate. While he does not possess the highest upside, he has topped 30 DK points twice this season, and at this price, that would be a great return on investment. The Timberwolves rank 29th in defense rating out of 30 NBA teams and have allowed +3.45 points above expectations to this position. This game has a 213.5 point over/under, and although the Mavericks are 13-point dogs, they are currently receiving 72 percent of the bets against the spread, so it may stay closer than expected.
Jeff Teague $6,300 DK vs. Dallas Mavericks
Jeff Teague continues to play solid minutes for the Timberwolves, averaging 32.4 minutes per game, and has also averaged nearly a fantasy point per minute. He has displayed a nice ceiling, scoring 58.75 DK points a couple of games back and has also topped 30 DK points on three other occasions. The Timberwolves have healthy 113.25 implied team total tonight, and the matchup is one that favors Teague. The Mavs have allowed +3.96 points above expectations to opposing point guards this season and rank 27th in defense rating.
Others to consider: Stephen Curry $9,500, Jimmy Butler $7,500, Reggie Jackson $6,300
DeMarcus Cousins $11,600 DK at Chicago Bulls
Boogie is off to a great season, averaging 37.8 minutes per game and 1.7 fantasy points per minute, as well as accounting for 27.6 percent of the Pelicans assists and 20.4 percent of their rebounds, while sporting a 33.1 percent usage rate. He has scored fewer than 50 DK points just once this season and has topped 60 DK points five times, including three 70+ fantasy point games. He has exceeded expectations 89 percent of the time by an average of 10.6 points. This a matchup that he should take advantage of against a Bulls front court that has allowed +3.42 above points to opposing bigs and are giving up 45.4 rebounds per game. He is both power forward and center eligible on DraftKings, but considering some of the center options at hand, I rather play Boogie at power forward.
Paul Millsap $6,800 DK vs. Golden State Warriors
Paul Millsap has put together some quality starts over his last four games, scoring over 40 fantasy points twice during that stretch and eclipsing 33 fantasy points in each of those contests. He is averaging 31.3 minutes this season and 1.03 fantasy points per minute, while sporting a 24 percent usage rate. Tonight’s matchup against the Warriors should be up in pace, as they play at the eighth-highest pace in the league, and so far this season, they are ranked 23rd in defense rating. The faster pace should create some extra rebounding and scoring opportunities for Millsap. The Warriors have also allowed +5.86 points above expectations to opposing power forwards, making this an all-around solid spot for Millsap.
Others to consider: Anthony Davis $11,200, Draymond Green $7,200, Harrison Barnes $5,800, Dirk Nowitzki $4,600
Andre Drummond $8,100 DK vs. Sacramento Kings
Andre Drummond continues to be a dominant rebounder, averaging 14.2 rebounds per game, having brought down double-digit rebounds in every single game this season. He is not a high-usage player, but he does account for 25.5 percent of the team’s rebounds and 11.6 percent of the assists. In addition, he is averaging 1.1 blocks per game and 1.29 fantasy points per minute. The matchup is one that favors him, as the Kings have allowed +7.14 points above expectations to opposing centers and are ranked 26 in defense rating. They are also allowing 48 rebounds per game with a -7.5 differential.
Karl-Anthony Towns $8,800 DK vs. Houston Rockets
Karl-Anthony Towns might be my favorite player on this slate. He comes at a reasonable price and draws a nice matchup against Dallas. The Mavericks rank 27th in defense rating and are yielding 47.2 rebounds per game with a -6.4 differential. In addition, they have allowed +4.06 points above expectations to centers. Towns got into early foul trouble last game, limiting him to just 23 minutes, but is in a good spot to bounce back.
Others to consider: Nikola Jokic $8,500, Robin Lopez $5,400
Feel free to ask me any questions on the Twitter machine @Armando_Marsal. Good luck to all!