DFS (Daily Fantasy Sports)

FanDuel GPP Value Plays – Week 9

Each week I explore cheap players whose FanDuel price does not match the ceiling they offer, making them GPP value plays. In FanDuel GPPs, I recommend cheap players who will offer at least 3x value, providing salary relief for your remaining roster spots.

In general, I will be looking at quarterbacks priced below $7,500, running backs and wide receivers below $6,500, and tight ends below $5,500. It is important to remember that these value recommendations are for GPPs (and not cash games), so we’re aiming for a hit rate above 20 percent.

Week 8 Review

  • Week 8 Results:1 Total = 1/7 (14 percent), QB = 0/1, RB = 0/2, WR = 1/3, TE = 0/1
  • Year-to-Date Results:
    • Total = 19/49 (39 percent)
    • QB = 3/8
    • RB = 6/16
    • WR = 7/24
    • TE = 4/8

Week 9 GPP value plays

QUARTERBACKS

  • Jacoby Brissett ($6,500)

3x GPP Value Threshold: 19.5 fantasy points.

Vegas: The Colts are seven-point away underdogs in Houston in a 46 total with an implied team total of 19.5.

Rushing Upside: Brissett in fifth among currently starting QBs (aka excluding Deshaun Watson) in rushing attempts per game and third in rushing TDs per game. Houston is allowing the fifth-most rushing TDs and the fourth-most rushing yards per game to opposing QBs.

Matchup: The Texans have lost most of their defensive firepower to free agency or injury over the past year. Since the game against the Chiefs where Houston lost both J.J. Watt and Whitney Mercilus, the Texans have faced Kevin Hogan and Russell Wilson. The latter lit them up for 452 passing yards, 4 TDs, and 30 rushing yards. Despite being eighth in defensive DVOA and 14th in pass DVOA, the Texans are now a plus-matchup for opposing offenses, and I want to attack this defense before the rest of the fantasy community catches on.

  • Others Considered: Kirk Cousins ($7,500) – Cousins is in a horrible spot in Seattle – one of the most difficult stadiums to play in – and will likely be without one of his favorite targets in Jordan Reed. Jamison Crowder is dealing with an injury as well. However, we rarely get a QB priced at $7,500 who has thrown multiple TD passes in nine of 16 games and will be sub two percent ownership.

Running Backs

  • Carlos Hyde ($6,500)

3x GPP Value Threshold: 19.5 fantasy points.

Vegas: The 49ers are two-point home underdogs versus the Cardinals in a 39.5 total with an implied team total of 18.75.

Opportunity: Hyde has 15-plus touches in seven of eight games despite playing in negative game scripts every game. He is heavily involved in the passing game with 46 targets on the year (third most among RBs), including 17 targets the past two weeks with C.J. Beathard at QB. Hyde has 23 red zone touches (fourth most). His 137 touches is seventh among RBs, yet he is priced as the RB14 on the main slate.

Matchup: Arizona is solid against the run but nothing to be afraid of with the volume Hyde gets. They’ve given up the ninth-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing RBs, are 12th in rush DVOA and 14th in DVOA against RBs in the passing game, but have allowed the 13th-most rushing TDs and 10th-most rushing attempts per game. Earlier this year, Hyde had 12 fantasy points in an away game against the Cardinals.

  • DeMarco Murray ($6,400)

3x GPP Value Threshold: 19.2 fantasy points.

Vegas: The Titans are 3.5-point home favorites in a 43 total with an implied team total of 23.25. Murray checks boxes as a home favorite.

Opportunity: While people are rightfully worried about Derrick Henry stealing touches from Murray, this has caused Murray’s priced to decrease enough where I can now consider him in GPPs. Murray has still seen double-digit carries in five of seven games and has three targets per game (including four, four, and five the past three games). He has 10 red zone touches over the past three weeks compared to Henry’s five red zone touches. The Titans’ offensive line ranks ninth in adjusted line yards.

Matchup: While the Ravens have an intimidating defense in theory (third in defensive DVOA; eight-fewest adjusted line yards allowed), they are 16th in rush defense DVOA, have allowed the 11th most fantasy points per game to opposing RBs, and have the 10th highest yards per carry against.  Five of seven starting RBs have had good fantasy performances against the Ravens. In their three road games, they allowed the corpse of Marshawn Lynch to find the end zone2 as well as Latavius Murray to come to life with 113 yards and a TD (the other away game was against the Browns).

  • Others Considered: Kenyan Drake ($4,500) – I am not certain how Miami will distribute their RB touches, but at minimum salary, I will take a shot on this backfield in GPPs. I prefer Drake to Damien Williams as Drake is stronger between the tackles while Williams the better pass-catcher. Oakland is 23rd in DVOA against the run and 23rd to pass-catching RBs. I’d rather roll with the RB who is more likely to fall into the end zone.3

Wide Receivers

  • Devin Funchess ($6,100)

3x GPP Value Threshold:  18.3 fantasy points.

Vegas: The Panthers are one-point home underdogs against the Falcons in a 43 total with an implied team total of 21.

Opportunity: Funchess has six or more targets in seven straight games and is averaging 8.1 targets per game over that span. While he has eclipsed 70 yards receiving just once, he is seventh in air yards since Week 2, and his three red zone TDs ties for 10th. His 22.1 percent target share this season ranks 20th, and he is 14th in end zone target share (36.4 percent). Yet he is the 22nd-priced WR on the main slate, and I haven’t even mentioned that Kelvin Benjamin was just traded, so all of his market share stats will certainly increase.

Matchup: While the Falcons have allowed the ninth-fewest fantasy points to opposing WRs, that must be put in the context of who those opposing WRs have been (Bears, Bills, Jets in three of those games). Their efficiency metrics reveals vulnerabilities in their secondary – 25th in pass DVOA, 21st in DVOA against opposing WR1s, and 32nd against WR2.

Buy-low opportunity: Despite having this increased opportunity, Funchess’s salary has steadily dropped $700 since Week 6 when he was $6,800. I like to buy players when their salary is at the lowest point it will be for the season.

  • DeVante Parker ($6,100)

3x GPP Value Threshold: 18.3 fantasy points.

Vegas: The Dolphins are three-point home underdogs against the Raiders in a 44 total with an implied team total of 20.5.

Bargain: While I typically don’t like rostering players in their first week back from injury, this price is really juicy for Parker, who has nine, 10, and eight targets in his three healthy games this season. During these healthy Weeks 2 through 4, Parker was second in air yards and seventh in weighted opportunity rating (WOPR).

High Ceiling: While Parker certainly has a low floor with his injury risk and simply being on the Dolphins, his ceiling according to the GLSP App is appealing for GPPs where he will likely have low ownership.

Screen Shot 2017-11-02 at 9.35.50 PM

Matchup: Parker returns to a plus-matchup against the Raiders secondary that ranks 32nd in pass DVOA, is 30th against WR1s, 23rd against WR2s, and 26th against other WRs. Oakland has allowed the eighth-most receiving yards to WRs and sixth-most completions of 20-plus yards.

  • Tyler Lockett ($5,500)

3x GPP Value Threshold: 16.5 fantasy points.

Vegas: The Seahawks are 7.5-point home favorites against the Redskins in a 45 total with an implied team total of 26.

Opportunity: In the two games since the Seahawks’ Week 6 bye,  Seattle has abandoned their running game and finally unleashed Russell Wilson – 80 pass attempts versus 40 RB carries. Lockett has 15 targets (one red zone) and four rush attempts (two red zone) during these two games, including 119 yards last week. I also want to leverage Lockett’s home/road splits, as seen in RotoViz’s Game Splits App.

Screen Shot 2017-11-02 at 10.06.45 PM

Matchup: While the Redskins have been stingy against opposing WRs,4 slot-man Nelson Agholor scored a TD in both games against Washington. I will trust Wilson to do his magic at home and choose the cheapest WR of the group.5

Stacking: Wilson will be one of the highest-owned QBs on the main slate, and for good reason. However, stacking him with Lockett will be much lower owned than one of the other pass-catchers, making this a contrarian leverage play.

  • Others Considered: Ted Ginn ($5,700) – Ginn will be able to use his speed on the track in the Super Dome against the Buccaneers secondary that has allowed the most fantasy points to opposing WRs, is 31st in pass DVOA, and allowed fellow speedsters to have strong performances in three of the last four weeks: Deonte Thompson (107 yards), John Brown (TD), and Brandin Cooks (85 yards).

Tight Ends

  •  Vernon Davis ($5,400)

Vegas: The Redskins are 7.5-point road underdogs in Seattle in a 45 total with an implied team total of 19.

Opportunity: While I was hoping Davis would be cheaper than this, he’s averaging 3.8 receptions, 65.2 yards, and 0.4 TDs per game in the last five games where teammate Jordan Reed has not suited up. Even with Reed playing in four of the last five games, Davis has still converted four targets into 60 receiving yards per game over that stretch.

Matchup: The biggest challenge for Davis is overcoming this matchup against a Seattle defense ranked sixth in pass DVOA, first in DVOA against TEs, and 17th in fantasy points allowed to TEs per game (9.6). However, the matchup softens a bit if Earl Thomas cannot play.

  • Others Considered: Jared Cook ($5,500) – Cook has quietly averaged 5.8 targets per game (ninth most on the main slate excluding Reed). The Dolphins have allowed the eighth-most fantasy points, fifth-most targets, and sixth-most TDs per game to opposed TEs.

Find me on Twitter @Michael_Dubner for more FanDuel talk.

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  1. Cash line for Week 6 = 121.88 points, value success formula = (6667/Player’s Salary)^1/3 * 2.03  (back)
  2. Plus 53 yards  (back)
  3. The Raiders have given up 0.38 rush TD per game vs 0.25 receiving TDs per game to RBs.  (back)
  4. Fourth-fewest fantasy points allowed to the position, 16th in pass DVOA, 6th in WR1 DVOA, 7th in WR2 DVOA, and 12th in other WR DVOA  (back)
  5. Paul Richardson will likely be covered by Josh Norman much of the game.  (back)
By Michael Dubner | @Michael_Dubner | Archive

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