DFS (Daily Fantasy Sports)

FanDuel GPP Value Plays – Week 10

Each week I explore cheap players whose FanDuel price does not match the ceiling they offer, making them GPP value plays. In FanDuel GPPs, I recommend cheap players who will offer at least 3x value, providing salary relief for your remaining roster spots.

In general, I will be looking at quarterbacks priced below $7,500, running backs and wide receivers below $6,500, and tight ends below $5,500. It is important to remember that these value recommendations are for GPPs (and not cash games), so we’re aiming for a hit rate above 20 percent.

Week 9 Review

  • Week 9 Results:1 Total = 2/7 (29 percent), QB = 1/1, RB = 1/2, WR = 0/3, TE = 0/1.
  • Year-to-Date Results:
    • Total = 21/56 (37.5 percent)
    • QB = 4/9
    • RB = 7/18
    • WR = 7/27
    • TE = 4/9

Week 10 GPP value plays

QUARTERBACKS

  • Eli Manning ($6,700)

3x GPP Value Threshold: 20.1 fantasy points.

Vegas: The Giants are three-point road favorites in San Francisco in a 42 total with an implied team total of 23.5.

Pace: The 49ers and Giants are first and sixth in offensive pace. This should lead to one of the fastest-paced games of the week, allowing for more total plays, and therefore, more fantasy points to be scored. This has the potential to be the sneaky shootout game of the week, similar to the Rams/Giants game last week.

Matchup: Outside of the Eagles and Buccaneers games, Manning has been #bad. However, one of his three top WRs is finally back from injury, and Manning is in an ideal matchup. The 49ers are 27th in pass defense DVOA and are allowing the fourth-most fantasy points, eleventh-most passing yards, eighth-most passing TDs, and thirteenth-fewest interceptions per game to QBs over the course of the season. These trends have become stronger over the past four weeks where the 49ers are giving up the second-most fantasy points and fourth-most passing TDs to QBs. Six of nine QBs have had multiple-TD games against this defense, including Drew Stanton last week.

  • Others Considered: Ryan Fitzpatrick ($6,100) –  Tampa Bay is third in pass-to-run ratio. The Jets have allowed multiple passing TDs in seven of nine games this season, and Fitzpatrick has thrown four TDs in 5.5 quarters this season.

Running Backs

  • Devonta Freeman ($6,500)

3x GPP Value Threshold: 19.5 fantasy points.

Vegas: The Falcons are three-point home favorites against the Cowboys in a 50.5 total (week’s highest) with an implied team total of 26.75. Freeman checks boxes as a home favorite in a high total.

Mercedes-Benz Stadium: While Freeman is in a slump in terms of fantasy production and has been battling through injuries, we are now getting Freeman at $6,500 as a home favorite, a situation that he has dominated over the past few seasons.

Screen Shot 2017-11-08 at 5.46.56 PM

He averages over a TD and nearly 20 fantasy points per game as a home favorite. During this same time period at home (regardless of the Vegas line), he has eclipsed 19.5 fantasy points in eight of 18 games. In Freeman’s three home games this year and one away game on turf (@Detroit), he’s averaged 19 touches per game, including four red zone touches per game. I believe the recency bias of his last few road games has caused for an overcorrection of his price.

Opportunity: The biggest concern surrounding Freeman’s outlook is his workload, which has trended downward, mostly attributed to his shoulder and knee injuries. However, it is important to remember that we don’t need him to see his typical workhorse workload to pay off this week. Even over the past four games, he has seen 14 touches per game (including two red zone touches per game). His 54 percent success rate vastly outperforms Tevin Coleman’s 37 percent success rate.

Matchup: While the Cowboys have only allowed the 18th-most fantasy points per game to opposing RBs and the sixth fewest over the past month (that could be attributed to the return of Sean Lee), opposing RBs have been in negative game script in most weeks (five of eight games, including five double digit wins). Now the Cowboys are road underdogs, and regardless, Freeman is game-script independent with his rushing and receiving ability. Dallas is a borderline run funnel defense if opponents have the opportunity to run. They’re 23rd in overall defensive DVOA and 19th against the pass, but 30th against the run and allowing the eighth-most yards per carry (4.4). They are allowing the sixth-highest success rate and second-highest explosive run rate to opposing RBs,

  • Orleans Darkwa ($5,300)

3x GPP Value Threshold: 15.9 fantasy points.

Vegas: The Giants are three-point road favorites in San Francisco in a 42 total with an implied team total of 23.5.

Opportunity: Over his last four games, Darkwa has 18, 12, 22, and 9 touches respectively. The Giants are 1-3 in those four games, with the 22-touch game coming in the win. He has out-touched Wayne Gallman 61 to 43 over the past month, including a 4-3 advantage in the red zone. As a favorite (projected positive or at least neutral game script), Darkwa should be in line to see the upper range of his touch distribution.

Matchup: While the 49ers have the 23rd-ranked rush defense (DVOA), they have allowed the most fantasy points to RBs over the course of the season, and that trend has continued, as they have allowed the most fantasy points to RBs over the past four weeks. San Francisco is allowing opposing RBs to see an absurd amount of volume (29 rushing attempts per game – most in the NFL). This has led to opposing RBs accumulating the second-most rushing yards and 10th-most rushing TDs per game.

  • Others Considered: Doug Martin ($6,100) – With Ryan Fitzpatrick at QB and Mike Evans suspended, Martin could see a heavy workload. His eight touches last week were likely a result of the Buccaneers getting routed by halftime. In his four other games this year, Martin has seen 17.5 touches per game.

Wide Receivers

  • Marvin Jones ($6,400)

3x GPP Value Threshold: 19.2 fantasy points.

Vegas: The Lions are 11.5-point home favorites against the Browns in a 44 total total with an implied team total of 27.75.

Opportunity: I can’t overstate how much Jones is trending up over the past few weeks. While he is eighth in fantasy points (12.25), 19th in targets (7.75), 27th in receptions (4.13), 17th in yards (64.38), ninth in TDs (0.63), and 15th in red zone targets (1.13) per game over the course of the season, these numbers are largely the result of his last three games during which he is first in fantasy points (20.2), first in targets (12), fourth in receptions (6.33), first in yards (110.33), first in TDs (1), and first in red zone targets (2.67) per game. With Matthew Stafford locked in on Jones – 27 percent target share since Week 5, and fourth among WRs in end zone target share – Jones is well underpriced for his recent production.

Matchup: Jones’ stats have been phenomenal recently, and the Browns present an equally juicy matchup. They are a pass funnel defense – 18th in defensive DVOA and first against the run, but 28th against the pass, 32nd against WR1s, second against WR2s, and 13th against other WRs. While they have allowed the ninth-fewest fantasy points, second-fewest targets, and ninth-fewest receiving yards to enemy WRs, they have also surrendered the third-highest completion percentage and third-most passing TDs. They have been gassed by three WRs for 18-plus fantasy points and have allowed seven WRs to reach double-digit FanDuel points. The only shade of caution I will throw on Jones is if cornerback Jason McCourty returns to the Browns secondary this week, as he has been strong in coverage when healthy.

  • Sterling Shepard ($5,700)

3x GPP Value Threshold: 17.1 fantasy points.

Vegas: The Giants are three-point road favorites in San Francisco in a 42 total with an implied team total of 23.5.

Opportunity: In his first game back from injury, Shepard saw nine targets (24 percent target share), including one red zone target, and had the most air yards on the team. Shepard has one of the highest target floor and ceiling combinations among value WRs. I expect his one TD on 38 targets (2.6 percent rate), including seven red zone targets, to positively regress, especially for a WR who scored eight TDs a year ago.

Matchup: As outlined in the Manning section, I expect this to be one of the fasted-paced games of the week. The 49ers are 27th in pass DVOA, 24th against WR1s, 24th against WR2s, and 26th against other WRs. They have allowed the 15th-most fantasy points, 11th-most receiving yards, and ninth-most TDs per game to opposing WRs. Their 2,600 air yards allowed is eighth-most against.

  • Mohamed Sanu ($5,900)

3x GPP Value Threshold: 17.7 fantasy points.

Vegas: The Falcons are three-point home favorites against Dallas in a 50.5 total, with an implied team total of 26.75.

Opportunity: Sanu’s fantasy value stems from his red zone usage where he leads the team in red zone targets (eight), is eleventh among WRs in red zone targets per game (1.14), and has converted all three of his targets inside the 10-yard line into TDs. He has at least one red zone target in each of his last five games. Removing the game against the Bills where Sanu was injured, he has a 21 percent target share.

Matchup: Dallas has allowed the eighth-most fantasy points and third-most receiving TDs per game to opposing WRs. They are 19th in pass defense DVOA, 19th against WR1s, 27th against WR2s, and 15th against WR3s. As the second pass catching option for the Falcons, Sanu will be able to take advantage of this hole in the Cowboys secondary.

  • Others Considered: Robby Anderson ($6,500) – Anderson is facing the Buccaneers secondary that has allowed the second-most fantasy points per game to opposing WRs and is 31st in pass defense DVOA. Anderson is ninth in market share of team air yards.

Tight Ends

  •  Kyle Rudolph ($5,400)

Vegas: The Vikings are 1.5 point road favorites in Washington in a 42.5 total with an implied team total of 22.

Opportunity: With Case Keenum at QB, Rudolph has averaged 6.3 targets per game. He has eight red zone targets on the year (eighth among TEs), a 30.8 percent red zone target share (third), and seven red zone receptions (second). He has the eighth-highest target and output adjusted receiving success (TOARS) among TEs, and the highest TOARS in the opponent’s red zone.

Matchup: Washington (right) funnels production exactly to where Rudolph (left) is strongest.2

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While the Redskins are 11th in pass defense DVOA and 13th against the run, they are 29th in DVOA against TEs. They have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points, eighth-most targets, fifth-most receptions, the most receiving yards, and seventh-most TDs per game to TEs over the course of the season. To add insult to injury, the Redskins are 31st in TOARS to opposing TEs.

  • Others ConsideredVernon Davis ($5,300) – Davis is right there with Rudolph as my top GPP value play for TEs this week if Jordan Reed is inactive. In arguably the most difficult matchup for TEs last week in Seattle, Davis saw nine targets which he converted into six receptions and 72 yards. While the Vikings are stout on defense (ninth in defensive DVOA and 13th against the pass), it appears they are most vulnerable to TEs (20th).

Find me on Twitter @Michael_Dubner for more FanDuel talk.

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  1. Cash line for Week 9 = 120.8 points, value success formula = (6667/Player’s Salary)^1/3 * 2.01  (back)
  2. Per Warren Sharp stats  (back)
By Michael Dubner | @Michael_Dubner | Archive

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