DraftKings Week 13 Cash Game Plays
Pat James highlights the best bang for your buck with cash game plays for DraftKings Week 13 main slate.
Week 12 Review
Full disclosure, Week 12 will probably go down as my worst DFS week ever. I only cashed 15 percent of my head-to-heads, basically because it was extremely tough to win without Julio Jones. Russell Wilson, Carlos Hyde, Tevin Coleman, Jarvis Landry, Cooper Kupp, and Jack Doyle all hit cash game value. Todd Gurley, Kenny Stills, Larry Fitzgerald, and Demaryius Thomas failed. My record on the year moves to 58-44.
DraftKings Week 13 Cash Game Plays
Brett Hundley ($5,100)
Boxes Checked: home favorite, team implied total, matchup, rushing upside, prime time pricing
We all just watched the Atlanta Falcons, namely Julio Jones, torch the Buccaneers’ secondary for 250 yards. Their pass defense is struggling mightily right now. They are giving up the most yards per game to opposing quarterbacks and are ranked 23rd in fantasy points allowed to QBs. Brett Hundley has hit cash game value three times in the last four games since the Packers’ bye week. This obviously includes his three touchdown performance in prime time in the hostile environment of Heinz Field.
Hundley actually represents one of the safer plays on the board given his ability to tack on fantasy points with his legs. He also gets the prime time pricing defect. Prices were already processed before he lit the Steelers up for three TDs, otherwise he would be near $6,000. He has the ability to rip a long TD run at any time, providing an extra few points on the ground. This play may be a bit cringe worthy, but as a home favorite Hundley will be my cash game QB.
Todd Gurley ($8,200)
Boxes Checked: game script independent, team implied total, market share of carries, market share of targets, pace, offensive line play
The Rams are TD favorites with a 26-point implied team total. That projected game script sets up well for Todd Gurley, who will see the vast majority of the carries. He is already the league leader in carries inside the five-yard-line with 12. Additionally, Gurley gets the majority of the passing down work out of the backfield, racking up over five targets per game.
Gurley has already faced this Cardinals defense this season, rushing for 106 yards and a score, plus adding four catches for 48 yards in the passing game. The Rams already play at a fast pace, ranking 10th in tempo. However, they get a pace bump in this game as the Cardinals rank sixth in tempo. The Rams’ offensive line ranks fourth in adjusted line yards on Football Outsiders, and RB is the Cardinals’ weakest position in pass defense.
Kenyan Drake ($4,900)
Boxes Checked: home team, increased market share of targets, increased market share of carries, mispriced
By no means is a matchup with the Broncos’ defense considered ideal, but they haven’t been as stout as their defenses of the last few years. In recent weeks, they’ve allowed receiving TDs to Rex Burkhead and Jalen Richard. The overarching reason for this recommendation is obviously the injury to Damien Williams.
The pricing gaffes that sites make because they do not account for a certain variable plays to our advantage. Williams averaged 17 touches per game in his last three, not counting last week’s abbreviated stint. The majority of those touches will head Kenyan Drake’s way, and he’s already averaging 10 touches since Jay Ajayi’s departure. We can confidently project Drake for 20 plus touches. With a salary of less than $5,000, that makes for a great dollar per opportunity bargain.
DeAndre Hopkins ($7,300)
Boxes Checked: projected game script, market share of targets, market share of red zone targets, snaps played, matchup.
We haven’t had too many instances of egregiously mispriced players on DraftKings this year. DeAndre Hopkins can be placed in that category against the Titans. Hopkins currently has a 37 percent target share in total targets and a 29 percent market share in the red zone. Hopkins barely comes off the field, usually only when the Texans use a heavy package at the goal line. Otherwise he plays 100 percent of the snaps in most games.
He’s facing a Titans defense that ranks 23rd in fantasy points allowed to wide receivers. He should see a good bit of Adoree Jackson. Jackson has been decent this year, but Hopkins is too polished and too physical not to win on the outside. The game script looks as though the Texans will be trailing, which could bolster Hopkins already gaudy target numbers. He currently has been targeted 12 times per game since Tom Savage took over. All our fears of Hopkins faltering with a new QB should have been extinguished when he overcame the shadow coverage of Patrick Peterson for 18 fantasy points. Lock him in for cash.
Davante Adams ($6,500)
Boxes Checked: matchup, market share of targets, market share of red zone targets, team implied total, home favorite.
Davante Adams has surpassed all other Packers’ WR as the top guy with Brett Hundley under center. Hundley has targeted Adams over nine times per game since the Packers’ bye week, totaling 37 targets. The next closest WR, Jordy Nelson, has 22 total targets. Adams has been hovering around 20 DraftKings points over the last three weeks. It’s clear that he and Hundley have established a rapport that isn’t present with other pass catchers.
The Packers are at home with a 23-point implied team total against a Buccaneers team that ranks dead last in fantasy points allowed to WRs. We all just witnessed Julio Jones torch them for 250 yards and two TDs. Obviously, that’s probably not in Adams’ range of outcomes, but I’m expecting 100 yards and a score, which will more than pay off his middling salary.
Seth Roberts ($3,700) or Cordarrelle Patterson ($3,400)
Boxes Checked: matchup, increased market share of targets, home favorite, team implied total
Seth Roberts and Cordarrelle Patterson find themselves in an increased target share situation against the Giants. The Raiders will be without Michael Crabtree and Amari Cooper this week thanks to a brawl and a nasty hit, respectively. Crabtree and Cooper account for 40 percent of the Raiders’ total targets and 43 percent of their red zone targets. Both players will have a chance to smash value with an increased workload.
Roberts has been steady all year, often playing 80 percent of team snaps and accruing five to seven fantasy points. Patterson has been more of a boom or bust commodity while only playing an average of 42 percent of snaps. With an increased role, Patterson could become more valuable than Roberts, but Roberts’ workload is more predictable. The boxes are checked for their matchup as they play a Giants team ranked 25th against fantasy WRs. They are also home favorites with an implied team total nearing 25. My advice would be to use whichever player fits your roster construction.
Jared Cook ($5,400)
Boxes Checked: increased market share of targets, matchup, home favorite, team implied total
Jared Cook is an enigma. He’s been a highly-touted player for what seems like a decade. He has been boom or bust, but against the Giants he has very little competition for targets and gets the best matchup possible as a tight end. The Giants rank 32nd in fantasy points allowed to TEs. It’s a well known fact that the you can confidently lock in the Giants’ opposing TE each week with reasonable certainty that they’ll meet value. Cook obviously will benefit from the absence of Cooper and Crabtree, who account for 40 percent of targets and 43 percent of red zone targets. Since there is such a large market share up for grabs in this game, I don’t mind rostering Cook and one of Roberts and Patterson. With a 25-point implied team total, there will be enough looks to go around.
Tyrod Taylor is a close second to Hundley, so you can pivot to Taylor if you prefer him. At RB, Jamaal Williams and Carlos Hyde are my favorite plays that weren’t written up. I have no issue playing Hundley and Williams together as they are both inexpensive. The issue arises with a crowded backfield if the other Green Bay RBs return. At WR, Adam Thielen, Jarvis Landry, and Dontrell Inman would be my secondary choices to the players listed above at similar price ranges. Austin Seferian-Jenkins against a struggling Chiefs’ secondary with a red hot Josh McCown can be rostered to save at TE.