DraftKings Week 12 Cash Game Plays
Pat James highlights the best point per dollar fantasy options for your DraftKings cash game lineups.
Week 11 Review
The plays that reached value last week included Tom Brady, Jamison Crowder, Bruce Ellington, Jarvis Landry, and Travis Kelce. The plays that did not reach value were Rex Burkhead and Jeremy Maclin. I am not going to count DeAndre Hopkins as a hit because I mentioned in my weekend update that I had moved off him. I’m also not going to count Chris Thompson as a miss as he left the game due to injury. My record on the year moves to 52-40.
DraftKings Week 12 Cash Game Plays
With Matt Moore starting against the Patriots now an absolute certainty, Kenny Stills becomes a cash game play. Jarvis Landry is still in play, but Stills and Moore’s chemistry is undeniable. Stills has 23 fantasy points per game when Moore is under center. Corey Davis can also be added if Rishard Matthews sits. This actually makes roster construction a bit easier if we are trying to jam in Wilson, Gurley or Ingram, and Coleman or Hyde.
Russell Wilson ($7,000)
Boxes Checked: Team implied total, favorite, pass play percentage, rushing floor, matchup, pace bump.
Vegas currently lists the Seahawks as touchdown favorites with a 24.5 point implied team total. I personally would put them closer to four TDs. Russell Wilson is an extremely safe choice to hit 20 fantasy points against the 49ers, who rank 26th in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks. The Seahawks have no semblance of a running game, which leads them to throw on 61 percent of their offensive plays. And a good chunk of the 39 percent of run plays are Wilson scrambles, which make his floor very safe. His ability to tack on five points each week with his legs can be a difference maker. The Seahawks get a big pace bump from the 49ers as they rank first in tempo and throw the most of any team in the league (which stops the clock often). Wilson will be my cash game QB this week without reservation.
Carlos Hyde ($5,500)
Boxes Checked: Home team, game script independent, market share of carries, market share of targets, pace.
Carlos Hyde always has good odds to see 20 touches. If the 49ers are leading, he will get mostly carries, like he did two weeks ago against the Giants. If they are trailing, it will be more target volume that gets him to 20 plus touches. With the Seahawks leading by a score or two likely, I’m projecting Hyde for upwards of eight targets. Either way, the game script doesn’t matter for Hyde. He does cede some work to Matt Breida, but he still gets 75 percent of the snaps. The 49ers run the fastest tempo offense in the league which means more opportunity. He’s grossly mispriced because of the tougher matchup but can take advantage of a defense that’s reeling.
Todd Gurley ($8,700)
Boxes Checked: Home favorite, team implied total, market share of touches, increased touch rate, matchup, game script independent, pace.
The Rams are hosting a Saints team that ranks 22nd in fantasy points allowed to running backs while being tops in the league at all other positions, meaning they “funnel” action to the RB. Todd Gurley, despite being game script independent, does have a favorable game script projection from Vegas as the Rams are field goal home favorites with a four-TD implied team total. Last week, Gurley reached 92 percent of the snaps played, which I expect to be similar this week. If the Rams are going to beat the Saints, their game plan should be a heavy dose of Gurley. The Rams will be missing Robert Woods, which could result in a couple extra targets for Gurley. I had a difficult time deciding between Gurley and Mark Ingram here but ultimately landed on Gurley because of the less likely instance of him being vultured by another RB.
Tevin Coleman ($6,500)
Boxes Checked: Home favorite, team implied total, market share of touches, matchup.
Tevin Coleman is going to get all the work he can handle against the 19th-ranked fantasy rush defense. He’s toted the rock 21 times each in the last two weeks. The Falcons are playing at home as a nine-point favorite with a great game script for an RB. As long as Devonta Freeman sits, he should be locked into 20-plus touches for a third straight week. The Buccaneers just gave up 7.8 yards per carry to Damien Williams and the Dolphins. Two weeks prior to that they were trucked by Mark Ingram and backfield mate Alvin Kamara. I’m not as sold on Coleman as I am on Hyde and Gurley because I have an easier time envisioning Matt Ryan getting all the Falcons’ points through the air, but nonetheless, Coleman is in a great spot.
Jarvis Landry ($6,800)
Boxes Checked: Projected game script, market share of targets, market share of red zone targets, matchup.
Jarvis Landry gets a game script dream, being a 16-point underdog to the Patriots. Vegas obviously thinks the Pats will jump out to a double-digit digit lead, which means tons of targets for the already target-hogging slot receiver. Landry leads his team in targets and only trails DeAndre Hopkins and Antonio Brown in targets per game. The biggest boost to Landry’s stock this year has been his red zone presence. Landry ranks third in the league in targets inside the 10 and ranks first in TD scored from inside the 10. In a matchup with the Patriots secondary, who rank 27th in fantasy points allowed to receivers, with game script ripe for him to be peppered with targets, Landry should be able to reach value while still providing a high floor.
Demaryius Thomas ($5.700)
Boxes Checked: Market share of targets, market share of red zone targets, matchup, projected game script.
The Oakland Raiders 23rd-ranked defense in terms of points allowed to fantasy wide receivers could be the cure the Broncos’ need. Demaryius Thomas is currently hovering around 10 targets per game over his last four. I wouldn’t fault anyone for choosing to roster Sanders over Thomas. My reasoning for choosing Thomas includes his red zone prowess and his floor. Sanders could catch a bomb and finish with five catches for 130 yards and a TD, but he has a much wider range of outcomes than Thomas. Thomas works more in the short to intermediate range. Paxton Lynch will get the nod this week and has shown chemistry with both receivers. Neither Thomas nor Sanders fantasy production took much of a hit with Lynch in the lineup.
Larry Fitzgerald ($5,900)
Boxes Checked: Market share of targets, market share of red zone targets, pace, home team, potential funnel spot.
I have read conflicting reports as to whether Jalen Ramsey or AJ Bouye will be following Fitzgerald around the field. Check back for the weekend update as I should have a clearer answer. Fitzgerald plays the majority of his snaps from the slot, which would normally mean he avoids the boundary corners, but they could possibly shadow him. If they don’t, his already eye-popping target market share of 25 percent and his red zone share of 26 percent could shoot up in a funnel spot. The Jaguars lock down corners force teams to throw inside the numbers. The Cardinals run the fifth-fastest tempo in the NFL, which means more snaps and potentially more targets. The Cardinals project to be an underdog in this game, which should result in a game script where they go up-tempo and throw often.
Jack Doyle ($4,500)
Boxes Checked: Market share of targets, home team, snaps played, matchup.
Jack Doyle struggled to get things going against a Steelers defense that does a good job defending the tight end. In the four games prior, he averaged 10 targets and 17 fantasy points per game. Doyle gets a matchup against a middle of the road fantasy TE defense. Playing at home with a three TD implied total should provide Doyle with another target projection near 10. A big positive for Doyle is that he very rarely comes off the field. His snaps played percentage routinely hits 90 percent. This game has sneaky shootout potential, which bodes well for Doyle and his double-digit target potential.
Andy Dalton gets a great match up with the Browns if you need the savings, though I think Wilson is far and away the play in cash this week. Mark Ingram is just as good a play as Gurley in my mind, but Alvin Kamara scares me a bit. A.J. Green doesn’t have the best matchup with the Browns as they funnel action to the middle of the field, but he’s a decent correlation play in head-to-heads with Dalton. Cooper Kupp should be in a good spot without Woods to soak up targets, but his price is rising. Travis Kelce gets a decent matchup at home if you have the money to spend up.