DFS (Daily Fantasy Sports)

DraftKings Plays for Week 9: Sponsored by FantasyLabs

Designed to give you our best advice for taking down the DraftKings Millionaire Maker, the Play of the Week contest pits writer against writer using FantasyLabs great tools – TrendsPlus/MinusVegas Lines, and more.

FantasyLabs offers a great selection of daily fantasy and sports analytics tools. Sign up for a FantasyLabs NFL account to get access to all other sports for free.

Check out the introduction for the nuts and bolts of how this works. The basic idea is that our analysts are going to do their best to recommend lightly-owned players who could smash their expected fantasy points in Week 9. The goal? To help you take down a GPP. To make sure we are well incentivized, the analyst with the best score each week wins a handsome cash prize.

WEEK 8 REVIEW

Before we look at our Week 8 DraftKings plays of the week, let’s review our Week 8 recommendations.

Analyst QB RB WR TE DEF Score
Eric Braun 20.20 2.22 16.50 2.65 8.21 49.79
Josh ADHD 19.61 2.70 -3.24 0.23 5.55 24.85
Ben Gretch 19.61 2.70 -6.40 2.65 5.73 24.29
Anthony Amico 19.61 2.22 -3.24 -3.33 5.73 20.99
Brian Malone -0.93 0.66 16.50 -7.54 11.07 19.75
Blair Andrews -6.53 0.66 16.34 -3.33 9.38 16.52
Jacob Rickrode -1.57 -4.18 16.50 -3.33 5.55 12.98
Tod Burros 1.87 2.70 -0.24 -7.54 11.07 7.85
RotoDoc -1.57 1.70 -5.45 5.33 5.73 5.75
Hasan Rahim -6.53 2.70 -5.98 9.10 5.73 5.02
Dave Caban -5.73 0.00 -1.00 0.10 11.07 4.43
Matt Wispe -5.73 2.22 -1.00 -3.33 11.07 3.22
Ben Bauer 1.93 -3.85 -3.91 2.65 0.39 -2.79
Devin McIntyre -5.73 2.22 -3.24 -8.73 11.07 -4.42
Colm Kelly -5.73 2.67 0.00 -8.73 5.73 -6.07
Joe Paeno -6.53 2.70 -9.20 -7.10 13.03 -7.10
Scott Smith -6.53 0.66 -0.73 -7.54 5.73 -8.42
John Lapinski -6.53 2.22 -8.23 -7.10 11.07 -8.57
Heith Krueger -5.14 2.70 -9.06 -2.75 5.55 -8.70
Mike Beers -2.44 3.78 -9.20 -7.54 5.55 -9.86
Drew Heinl -5.73 1.76 -5.45 -8.73 5.73 -12.42
Ryan Bobbitt -5.73 -2.63 -9.06 -3.33 5.73 -15.02
Pat James -6.53 2.67 -5.45 -7.54 0.39 -16.46

Congratulations to Eric Braun, who wins this week’s cash prize. He beat the next two scores combined. In all, seven analysts gave your GPP lineups a double-digit scoring boost. Let’s see what they recommend this week.

Week 9 DraftKings Plays of the Week

Analyst QB RB WR TE DEF
Anthony Amico Jacoby Brissett Adrian Peterson T.Y. Hilton Ryan Griffin Arizona Defense
Ben Bauer Jameis Winston Derrick Henry Mohamed Sanu Jimmy Graham Arizona Defense
Ben Gretch Dak Prescott Carlos Hyde Trent Taylor Ed Dickson Indianapolis Defense
Blair Andrews Jared Goff Javorius Allen Robert Woods Ben Watson Atlanta Defense
Brian Malone Tom Savage Alvin Kamara Sterling Shepard Cameron Brate Jacksonville Defense
Colm Kelly Alex Smith Alvin Kamara Tyreek Hill Vernon Davis Philadelphia Defense
Dave Caban Drew Brees Carlos Hyde Allen Hurns Jared Cook Jacksonville Defense
Devin McIntyre Dak Prescott Marlon Mack Dez Bryant Jimmy Graham Seattle Defense
Drew Heinl Dak Prescott Mark Ingram Dez Bryant Jack Doyle Philadelphia Defense
Eric Braun Jameis Winston Carlos Hyde Dez Bryant Vernon Davis LA Rams Defense
George Fitopoulos Drew Brees Carlos Hyde Michael Thomas Vernon Davis Jacksonville Defense
Hasan Rahim Dak Prescott Mark Ingram T.Y. Hilton Jimmy Graham Philadelphia Defense
Jacob Rickrode Kirk Cousins DeMarco Murray Demaryius Thomas Ryan Griffin San Francisco Defense
Joe Paeno Dak Prescott Adrian Peterson Dez Bryant Jimmy Graham Indianapolis Defense
John Lapinski

—-

Josh ADHD

Jameis Winston

—-

Alex Smith

Marlon Mack

—-

Adrian Peterson

T.Y. Hilton

—-

Michael Thomas

Ed Dickson

—-

Travis Kelce

Philadelphia Defense

—-

Indianapolis Defense

Matt Wispe Dak Prescott Mark Ingram Devin Funchess Zach Ertz San Francisco Defense
Pat James Jacoby Brissett Lamar Miller T.Y. Hilton Jack Doyle Philadelphia Defense
RotoDoc Jacoby Brissett Christian McCaffrey T.Y. Hilton Jack Doyle Arizona Defense
Ryan Bobbitt Dak Prescott Doug Martin Tyreek Hill Ben Watson Indianapolis Defense
Scott Smith Drew Brees Adrian Peterson Robert Woods Jimmy Graham Indianapolis Defense
Tod Burros Kirk Cousins Doug Martin Robert Woods Vernon Davis Philadelphia Defense

Commentary

Anthony AmicoRyan Griffin is your low-owned exposure to the team with the highest implied total on the week. Right now, FantasyLabs has Griffin projected to be between two and four percent owned, and he comes out fourth in the Tournament Model.

Ben BauerMohamed Sanu has exceeded FantasyLabs expected points all but one time this season and has a reasonably modest projected ownership this week.

Ben GretchEd Dickson is the only skill position player in the NFL to play 100 percent of his team’s snaps in each of the past four games (only one other player, DeAndre Hopkins, has even two such games in that span) and has seen four or more targets in five straight games. With Kelvin Benjamin traded and Devin Funchess projected to be highly owned, Dickson makes for a leverage play with the third-best Projected Plus/Minus among TEs on the slate, per FantasyLabs.

Blair AndrewsRobert Woods has the sixth-highest projected ceiling among WRs on FantasyLabs, but at $4,300 he has only the 28th-highest WR salary on the slate. He leads the Rams in targets and air yards and now faces a depleted Giants secondary.

Brian MaloneCameron Brate has a top-five ceiling and five Pro Trends, and his ownership should be in the low single digits.

Devin McIntyreMarlon Mack has a 20+ yard play in five of six games, and a 10+ yard play in every game this year. Still just $4,100, FantasyLabs notes that’s an 80 percent bargain rating versus his FanDuel pricing and projects him for under one percent ownership.

Drew HeinlDak Prescott has FantasyLabs highest Plus/Minus, but his ownership percentage is projected between five and eight percent. I think Prescott will throw slightly more in the red zone and may even have a couple of attempts at a QB draw with Elliott on the field.

Eric Braun – I have to hope that the ownership will be down for Dez Bryant as Fantasy Labs projects him at 17-20 percent. Labs likes the matchup as they give Bryant a +1.32 projected plus/minus.

George FitopoulosCarlos Hyde might fly a bit under the radar this week due to a perceived bad matchup and a messy situation within the 49ers’ offense. While the Cardinals have a good run defense (Opponent Plus/Minus of -2.7), Hyde has been a monster in the passing pass game as well, averaging 7.7 targets per game over the last three weeks. Absent Pierre Garcon, Hyde should continue to see a massive workload and is at his lowest price since Week 3.

Hasan Rahim – Dak Prescott’s projected Plus/Minus of 3.82 points is the highest number among all QBs. Additionally, Prescott’s ceiling of 29.1 points is second best. Prescott’s ownership is forecast to range from 5-8 percent per FantasyLabs, and his depressed ownership makes him a solid play.

Jacob Rickrode – FantasyLabs projects Kirk Cousins to be just one percent owned against a Seattle defense that was just torched by Deshaun Watson. Demaryius Thomas averages 10.8 targets and 16.9 PPR points with Brock Osweiler under center.

Joe Paeno – The Chiefs and Cowboys total opened at 51 and has already moved to 52, so there should be plenty of scoring opportunities. According to FantasyLabs, Prescott has a top-three ceiling, points per dollar, and gets the most favorable matchup bump of any quarterback.

John Lapinski – The departure of Kelvin Benjamin should open up some targets for the rest of the offense. FantasyLabs has Dickson with the third best plus-minus at TE and a low ownership projection.

Josh ADHD – Alex Smith, despite opening the season with a 16/0 TD/INT ratio, is projected between only five and eight percent ownership against a Dallas pass defense that can be had. Stacking Smith with Travis Kelce this week is a nice pivot against more popular stacks.

Matt Wispe – According to the FantasyLabs models tool, the San Francisco/Arizona matchup has the lowest Vegas total. And prior to the Carson Palmer injury, Arizona allowed an average Plus/Minus of 2.6. Add in Drew Stanton’s 14:20 career TD to INT ratio, and the 49ers defense is a cheap play if you avoid the Eagles chalk.

Pat James – I’m going for the full-on Texans-Colts game stack here. The game could get a bit chalky, but we can make a unique combination. According to FantasyLabs ownership projection model, T.Y. Hilton and Jack Doyle are going to be fairly high owned, but I think Lamar Miller will garner less ownership. I like using Jacoby Brissett in some lineups to make the lineup more unique. The defenses in this game are last and second to last at allowing points over expectation.

RotoDoc – Each individual Colt I’ve chosen doesn’t project to be contrarian according to FantasyLabs ownership, but a QB-WR-TE stack might end up a bit contrarian as people look toward the other side of the ball in this game. Jack Doyle has had four straight games obliterating his Plus/Minus projection, and FantasyLabs lets you easily see from their player games logs that T.Y. Hilton hasn’t been this cheap since 2013.

Ryan BobbittBen Watson is the third highest-rated TE in the Levitan model and offers salary relief at just $2,700.

Scott Smith – Drew Brees gets a Tampa Bay defense that ranks 31st in passing DVOA. Add in the fact that Brees has scored about 10 more fantasy points per game at home over the last 3 years and it’s easy to see him having a big day. The Saints are touchdown favorites and multiple models at FantasyLabs love Brees.

Tod Burros – My least chalky player, according to FantasyLabs ownership projections, is Kirk Cousins. With Earl Thomas most likely missing a week, he’s a great low-owned option.

Frequency Table

QB COUNT RB COUNT WR COUNT TE COUNT DEF COUNT
Dak Prescott 7 Carlos Hyde 4 T.Y. Hilton 5 Jimmy Graham 5 Philadelphia Defense 6
Jacoby Brissett 3 Adrian Peterson 4 Dez Bryant 4 Vernon Davis 4 Indianapolis Defense 5
Jameis Winston 3 Mark Ingram 3 Robert Woods 3 Jack Doyle 3 Arizona Defense 3
Drew Brees 3 Alvin Kamara 2 Tyreek Hill 2 Ben Watson 2 Jacksonville Defense 3
Kirk Cousins 2 Doug Martin 2 Michael Thomas 2 Ed Dickson 2 San Francisco Defense 2
Alex Smith 2 Marlon Mack 2 Demaryius Thomas 1 Ryan Griffin 2 Atlanta Defense 1
Tom Savage 1 Christian McCaffrey 1 Devin Funchess 1 Cameron Brate 1 LA Rams Defense 1
Jared Goff 1 DeMarco Murray 1 Allen Hurns 1 Jared Cook 1
Seattle Defense
1
Derrick Henry 1 Mohamed Sanu 1 Zach Ertz 1
Javorius Allen 1 Sterling Shepard 1  Travis Kelce  1
Lamar Miller 1 Trent Taylor 1

Subscribe to the best.

By Charles Kleinheksel | @Spidr2ybanana | Archive

No Comment

Leave a reply