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Week 10 Fantasy Projections: Fournette Runs Wild

The RotoViz Game Level Similarity Projections help you make lineup decisions using historical matchups as your guide.

Week 10 is upon us, and it’s time to make start/sit and roster management decisions. Earlier in the week, we looked at preliminary GLSP projections derived from a model I pulled together. Let’s compare and contrast these results with the GLSP projections calculated by the RotoViz apps and identify players with a surprising range of outcomes.

As a reminder, GLSP projections are agnostic of a player’s situation, health, and external factors. They are compiled through the use of historical data to identify matchups between comparable players and defenses. How have running backs similar to James White fared against defenses similar to the Broncos? These are the types of questions that GLSP attempts to answer. GLSP projections rely solely on historical data.

How’d We Do Last Week?

C.J. Beathard did surprise. He scored 17 points and finished as QB14. While Marcus Mariota didn’t exactly struggle, he was held to 15 points and finished as QB17. Though my quarterback calls panned out, I was way off in selecting Marlon Mack as the week’s surprising RB. He scored just three points. Tevin Coleman, who was expected to struggle, had an okay game with 10 points and finished as RB26. Allen Hurns failed to put together a solid game. He managed six points and wasn’t the upside play that I anticipated. On the other side of the coin, I expected Julio Jones to struggle. He finished as WR13 and scored nearly 18 points. I feel a little better about the week knowing that Jared Cook, who I expected to smash, was the highest scoring tight end with 21 points. Due to extreme parity across the position, I didn’t have a surprisingly bad TE selection.     

Week 10 Fantasy Projections

Quarterback

Cam NewtonMarcus Mariota, and Drew Brees look primed for great games. The three passers all possess median projections above 18 points and could go for as many as 24. The preliminary GLSP liked Ben Roethlisberger and Jared Goff, but the site app sees Roethlisberger and Goff as average options.

As you’d expect, both models anticipate a rough outing for Philip Rivers when he faces the Jaguars. Neither GLSP anticipates that Kirk Cousins will have a high-scoring outing against Minnesota.

Blake Bortles and Case Keenum project as strong streaming options. However, both GLSPs suggest avoiding Jacoby Brissett.

Surprisingly Good

Eli Manning is averaging less than 14 points per game, but both GLSPs place this total toward the bottom-end of his range of outcomes. The early model gave him the sixth-best median of the week, and the site version sets his floor at his seasonal average. While you shouldn’t expect him to score 30 points, he’s definitely worth considering as a streamer.

Site GLSP 4 Pt PTD 6 Pt PTD
Low 14 16
Median 16 19
High 21 25

Surprisingly Bad

Tyrod Taylor has been our surprisingly good option a number of times this season. The GLSP normally likes his chances, but he projects with a bottom-third range of outcomes against the Saints. If you haven’t been paying attention, New Orleans has been a tougher opponent for opposing QBs than you might expect. This is reflected in his lower than average ceiling and weak floor.

Site GLSP 4 Pt PTD 6 Pt PTD
Low 13 13
Median 15 17
High 19 21

Running Back

The site GLSP expects some monster performances. Ezekiel Elliott, LeSean McCoy, Jordan Howard, and Le’Veon Bell all possess ceilings of 30 or more points. The early GLSP expected similar results and also liked Mark Ingram and Todd Gurley, who project with great outlooks as well.

Jerick McKinnon will be fresh coming off a bye. While the early model did project a strong ceiling, it also forecast a weak floor and median. However, if we limit the recent game search using the site version, it looks like he should be fine and is a strong play against Washington.

Frank Gore projects with a more optimistic ceiling in the site model than in mine but does come with a floor of just three points. Rob Kelley will also be tough to slot in your flex; his floor is two points or less under the majority of searches.

Ameer Abdullah forecasts with a wide range of outcomes, as does Bilal Powell. However, both should be considered when setting your lineups.

Surprisingly Good

Leonard Fournette has been a beast this season, but I was still surprised to see how strongly he projects against the ChargersHe owns the highest average of all RBs in the early model and is by and large the best option when searching site defaults.1 While his projection does drop to a degree when playing with the recent game filter, the potential for an absolutely monster, week-winning performance is there.

Site GLSP STD 1/2PPR PPR
Low 11 9 11
Median 26 25 26
High 35 33 35

Surprisingly Bad

C.J. Anderson has certainly cooled off since he posted a 27-point performance in Week 2. He averaged over 15 points per game through the first four games of the season but has put up an average of less than five since. His usage has declined and he’s continually become a riskier play on a weekly basis. If you’re considering him this week, odds are you have a better option. Even if we include the entire 2017 season in his recent game search, he projects with a floor of just two points. With the Broncos an 8.5-point underdog visiting New England, it seems likely that he could get phased out of the game plan quickly. While you may have to start him, sit him if it’s an option.

Site GLSP STD 1/2PPR PPR
Low 1 2 2
Median 6 6 6
High 10 12 15

Wide Receiver

The early GLSP viewed Golden Tate and Emmanuel Sanders as top-tier WRs. The site model agrees and forecasts both with top-10 ceilings. JuJu Smith-Schuster also finds his way into the top 1o, thanks to a favorable matchup with the Colts.  

Mohamed Sanu forecasts as a great flex option in both GLSPs. The early model wasn’t particularly high on Taylor Gabriel and Cooper Kupp, but the site version projects both with considerable upside.

Adam Thielen forecasts with a weak range of outcomes in both models, but Stefon Diggs has a more optimistic outlook. Of course, he’s got to get his tooth issue squared away.

Robby Anderson makes for a safe start against the Buccanneers, and Jermaine Kearse carries significant upside into the matchup.

Rishard Matthews projects strongly and should be in lineups this weekend.

Surprisingly Good

Robert Woods scored two touchdowns in Week 9 and the GLSP took notice. It projects him with a strong range of outcomes against the Texans and a ceiling of 21 points. The early GLSP also liked Woods and projected him with WR2 upside.

Site GLSP STD 1/2PPR PPR
Low 3 5 6
Median 5 7 9
High 17 19 21

Surprisingly Bad

Neither GLSP is particularly high on Brandin Cooks’ outlook against the Broncos. The early GLSP slated him with a floor of four points and ceiling of just 11. The site GLSP isn’t quite as bearish but doesn’t expect Cooks to be WR2.

Site GLSP STD 1/2PPR PPR
Low 2 3 4
Median 5 7 10
High 10 12 14

Tight End

The early GLSP projected Rob Gronkowski as the top TE. The site app likes him but sees Kyle Rudolph as an even stronger option.

Like the early GLSP, the site version also views Cameron Brate and Evan Engram as strong options.

Austin Hooper is pretty far down the list in both GLSPs and may not be the best streamer. Vernon Davis projects more favorably in both models. With Jordan Reed’s health a concern for Washington, Davis could get the start and would definitely be worth entering into your lineups.

Surprisingly Good

Eric Ebron has burned me once before this season, but nonetheless, he’s once again my surprisingly good TE. While the early GLSP forecasted Ebron with a range of outcomes in-line with his 2017 production, the site app sees the potential for a strong performance against the Browns. His projection is most favorable when at defaults, and does drop as the recent game search is limited, but he stands out when compared to other Week 10 streaming options.

Site GLSP STD 1/2PPR PPR 1 1/2 PPR
Low 1 1 2 2
Median 5 7 8 9
High 11 12 15 19

Surprisingly Bad

Austin Seferian-Jenkins is averaging over 10 points per game but will be lucky to put up a total anywhere near there this weekend. The GLSP is pessimistic on his outlook against Tampa Bay, and his comparables have averaged approximately five points when playing similar defenses. While the early model viewed him as a fringe starter, his weak floor and low median make him one of the riskier plays from the site GLSP’s perspective.

Site GLSP STD 1/2PPR PPR 1 1/2 PPR
Low 0 1 2 2
Median 2 3 4 5
High 7 10 11 13

 

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  1. For some reason he had fallen off the table when I first published the early article, but he’s in it now.  (back)
By Dave Caban | @DaveCabanFF | Archive

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