DraftKings Week 10 Cash Game Plays
Pat James highlights the best bang for your buck cash game plays for DraftKings’ Week 10 main slate.
Week 9 Review
This week my cash game plays put up a 6-3 record to improve my cash game record to 42-32. Dak Prescot, Todd Gurley, Devin Funchess, Jack Doyle, and my Saturday update additions of Russell Wilson and Vernon Davis all met value based on the double-up cash lines. Dez Bryant, Russell Shepard, and Jimmy Graham all fell short of expectations.
DraftKings Week 10 Cash Game Plays
Update: Matt Forte being inactive makes Bilal Powell my top overall play at running back. I would rank them Powell, Carlos Hyde, Le’Veon Bell, Jordan Howard. In addition, Jason McCourty being active makes me lean a bit towards Golden Tate instead of my initial write up of Marvin Jones. I wouldn’t rearrange my entire lineup to swap from Jones to Tate, but if you can do so without much of a shake up, I would.
Matthew Stafford ($6,800)
Boxes Checked: Home favorite, team implied total, matchup, funnel defense, red zone play calling.
Matthew Stafford faces a Browns pass funnel defense that allows 230 yards through the air, but only 84 yards on the ground. The Lions check many of the team boxes, as they are projected for 28 implied points and they are 13-point home favorites. The Lions have a non-existent running game and have struggled to establish one for much of the season. This is evident when looking at the play calling in the red zone. The Lions have thrown the ball 51 times to just 27 rushes inside the 20-yard line. Stafford has established a renewed rapport with Marvin Jones, which has raised both of their fantasy floors on a weekly basis. There are a few value players that allow us to pay up for the safety of Stafford.
Jordan Howard ($6,100)
Boxes Checked: Home favorite, team implied total, market share of carries, market share of red zone carries, run play percentage, matchup.
Jordan Howard’s usage has drastically increased since Mitch Trubitsky took over at quarterback for the Bears. Howard has 80 carries and four receptions over the last three games, dwarfing the usage of Tarik Cohen, who only has 18 carries and three receptions. The Bears are committed to giving Howard the rock. In addition to the market share of carries, he’s also getting 70 percent of the usage in the red zone and 71 percent inside the 5-yard line. Now that Trubitsky is under center, the Bears are trying to protect him by being one of the most run-heavy teams in the league. The Bears are five-point favorites at home and fall just above the acceptable team implied total line at 21.5 points. Green Bay is ranked 23rd in rushing yards allowed, despite not having faced many elite rushers. The matchup isn’t scary at all, and the usage will be there for a mid-tier price.
Carlos Hyde ($6,300)
Boxes Checked: Home team, pace of play, game script independent, market share of carries, market share of targets
Carlos Hyde doesn’t fit the mold of an RB we normally target. He’s playing at home this week but is a one-point underdog on a team that isn’t projected for a high implied total. However, the other factors in his favor greatly outweigh the negatives. The 49ers and Giants both play very fast-paced game styles. The 49ers are first overall in tempo, while the Giants are also top 10. There should be a high number of plays run in this game.
Hyde doesn’t need a specific game script, as he is their primary runner, and he is garnering a ton of targets as well. Hyde plays on around 70 to 80 percent of the snaps, carries the ball 12 to 15 times, and has been targeted an average of nine times over the last three games. Meanwhile his competition for carries, Matt Breida, is seeing his workload dwindle as he got a minuscule three touches on 17 percent of the snaps last week. The Giants defense has been a shell of what we thought they’d be. They’ve been plagued by injury and sub-par performance. No matter the flow of the game, Hyde should see a combined 20 or more touches in both the run and pass game.
Le’Veon Bell ($9,800)
Boxes Checked: Team implied total, game script independent, market share of carries, market share of targets, red zone usage, matchup, projected game script
Le’Veon Bell makes for a great cash game play because of the floor that he brings to the table. He’ll almost never give you a dud. Bell sports a 100 percent market share of carries inside the 5- and 10-yard line and a 90 percent share inside the 20. Basically, he gets every RB carry or target. He also gets all the touches inside the red zone and at the goal line. His price is a tad prohibitive, but with the other value that has opened up, I don’t think he’s impossible to fit. Despite excelling in any game script, being a 12-point favorite with an implied total of 28 points is a very positive situation for Bell.
Adam Humphries ($3,100)
Boxes Checked: Increased market share of targets, mispriced, matchup, home, game script
Adam Humphries should get a boost in production from the absence of Mike Evans and Jameis Winston. Obviously having Evans double-digit targets spread around helps, but having Ryan Fitzpatrick may help as well. Before his eight second-half attempts last week, Fitzpatrick played in one other game against the Cardinals. In that game, he received seven targets and finishing with six receptions for 50 yards.
In the early part of the season, it looked as if Winston had a favorite slot receiver, targeting Humphries often, but he has only been targeted 11 times in the last three games. The switch to Fitzpatrick should alleviate the recent low target numbers. The near minimum price on Humphries indicates Evans’ suspension was not taken into account when salaries were released, so Humphries has great odds of meeting cash game value. The Jets rank 27th in fantasy points allowed to the WR position. The overall game script feels like the Buccaneers will be trailing and throwing a bit more than usual, as well.
Marvin Jones ($6,200)
Boxes Checked: Home favorite, team implied total, matchup, market share of targets, market share of red zone targets, funnel defense, MNF pricing effect.
Marvin Jones gets the benefit of playing on Monday Night Football, which means his salary has not been impacted by his monster game. I don’t love to “chase points,” but this instance is much different. Jones commands 24 percent of the Lions red zone targets, which is double anyone else on the team. Over the course of the last three games, he has developed a much better rapport with Stafford, seeing double-digit targets and 35 total in that time span. The Browns have a much stronger run defense, which will force the already pass-heavy offense of the Lions to remain that way. Inside the red zone, the Lions have thrown over 70 percent of the time. In a home game on the fast track as a two-TD favorite with an implied total of 28 points, Jones presents a great option at a non-adjusted price.
Cameron Brate ($4,100)
Boxes Checked: Matchup, pace of play, home team, mispriced, projected increase in targets, projected increase in red zone targets.
Cameron Brate becomes the go-to red zone option now that Evans’ suspension has been upheld. He already owns a 33 percent market share of red zone targets, which is tied with Evans. Now, those 10 targets per game need to go elsewhere. The Buccaneers have a plus matchup with the Jets, who rank 30th in fantasy points allowed to the tight end. Tampa is top five in terms of pace of play. That may change a bit with Fitzpatrick at the helm, but I don’t think they’ll slow the game to a crawl, especially against a team they’ll be able to move the ball against. Brate is egregiously mispriced for his target share, especially now that we can project him to scoop up an extra two to four targets with Evans off the field. I don’t think it’s too much to get Humphries and Brate in the same lineup, as they are combined only $7,200 and can push for upwards of 18 targets.
Garrett Celek ($2,500)
Boxes Checked: Minimum salary, matchup, projected increase in target market share.
Let’s not act like Garrett Celek is all of the sudden a good play at TE. The fact of the matter is George Kittle has been ruled out of this game against the Giants, allowing for an increased target share for Celek at minimum price. Pierre Garcon went to IR two weeks ago, which opens up even more targets. Approximately 15 targets are up for grabs without those two pass catchers on the field. Celek received four targets last week after Kittle left the game. In addition, the 49ers face a Giants pass defense that ranks dead last in fantasy points allowed to the TE. Realistically, 10 points would be considered smashing value, especially if there is a stud he allows you to pay up to roster.
Jared Goff’s price being almost identical to Stafford kept him off my write-up recommendations, but he’s a fine play as well. If you need to spend down, Ryan Fitzpatrick is my favorite value QB play. I’m probably sticking to my recommended RB plays of Howard, Hyde, and Bell. At WR, Sterling Shepard and Robert Woods are in play, and if one of the two Cowboys starters were to miss the game, Cole Beasley is too. Vernon Davis can be subbed in for Brate, but with Brate being $600 cheaper, you’d have to prefer Davis substantially more to pull the trigger.