Advice

Winning The Flex: Week 7 Edition

Winning the Flex focuses on difficult lineup decisions across positions each week.

To show our appreciation, we have changed the format of this article and are involving more of our followers. Every week I will be taking the best questions from the weekly “Winning The Flex” thread on the forums and using our apps to give the best advice possible.

McKinnon vs Adams vs Funchess vs Henry

McKinnon, Devante Adams, Funchess or Coop? Wildcard is Henry against CLE. If Zeke’s suspension is upheld I’ll play McKinnon at one of my RB spots and it’ll then be between Adams, Funchess, Coop and Henry if I’m feeling daring.

Thank you.

Congrats if you played Amari, but we’ll assume you didn’t with so many quality options. The GLSP Projections app gives both Devin Funchess and Davante Adams 21-point ceilings this week, but Adams in particular has a really scary floor of only four points.1 Derrick Henry also checks in with a similar ceiling to Funchess and Adams, but it’s skewed heavily by last week’s 20 touches. If Demarco Murray sits, he becomes an intriguing option, but if Murray plays he can’t be fully trusted.

Jerick McKinnon

GLSP Projection

STD 1/2PPR PPR
Low 9.6 12 14.1
Median 17 18.8 20.4
High 27.7 28.8 30.2

It was a really tough choice between McKinnon and Funchess, but McKinnon is on fire right now and the GLSP believes that will continue this week against the Ravens. Baltimore has allowed the second-most rushing attempts and rushing yards this season.

 

Montgomery vs Henry vs Allen vs Matthews

TyMont v NO / Henry @ CLE / Keenan v DEN / Rishard @ CLE

The Saints have allowed the fifth-most targets to running backs this year, which in theory would set up well for Montgomery. Unfortunately, he only played 30 percent of the snaps last week as he’s still recovering from a rib injury. As I mentioned above, if Demarco Murray doesn’t play, Henry is a strong play against the Browns and would become my preferred choice. The Browns rush defense has been their strength, but the Titans will stick with it (third-highest rush attempts per game in 2016) in a game they are favored by a touchdown.

Keenan Allen

GLSP Projection

STD 1/2PPR PPR
Low 2.3 3.5 4.5
Median 6 8.6 11.3
High 16.4 19.9 23.4

I expected the GLSP to favor Matthews and his much easier matchup, but surprisingly that wasn’t the case. The app actually gives Allen a higher median and ceiling. However I would suggest that Matthews’ numbers are somewhat affected by Marcus Mariota’s injury and playing a game with Matt Cassel at QB. If you’re chasing a ceiling, I’m still more confident in Matthews.

I’m siding with Allen overall due to the reliable volume. It’s an insane statistic, but he’s received at least nine targets in 10 of his last 12 games played. Here’s how his 2017 target share compares to the workload of top-12 receivers.

Winning The Flex Week 7

The matchup is brutal as the Broncos allow the third-fewest air yards and third-fewest yards after the catch. I’d suggest tempering expectations, but opportunity is still king in fantasy football.

 

Snead vs Watkins vs J. Matthews

Hmm okay I have a decision between willie snead or Sammy Watkins or Jordan Matthews. Or I can drop one and pick up a FA like Lee or Gabriel

At this point it’s really tough to recommend Willie Snead as a play. He’s missed the majority of the season and last week only played 29 percent of the snaps. He will become more involved as the season goes on, but right now he’s unplayable. Jordan Matthews is returning from injury and is also extremely hard to trust. Not to mention the Bills are favorites against the Buccaneers and currently average the fewest pass attempts per game.

Sammy Watkins

GLSP Projection

STD 1/2PPR PPR
Low 0 0 0
Median 2.7 4.2 5.9
High 11 14.5 17.1

Sammy Watkins will likely be matched up with lock down cornerback Patrick Peterson, but Peterson did leave last week’s matchup with a quad injury and may not be 100 percent. The GLSP rightfully gives Watkins pessimistic projections, but he does possess game-breaking ability that could be showcased if he happens to get matched up with Justin Bethel (who had allowed the 10th-most receiving yards heading into last week’s games). Watkins is the best play out of that group.

I was going to recommend you scoop up Taylor Gabriel as a plug-and-play against a Patriots defense allowing the most receiving yards in the NFL. Unfortunately Mohamed Sanu’s expected returns really puts a damper on Gabriel’s outlook. If Sanu still ends up sitting, I would consider making that move as Gabriel would be in a good spot to erupt.

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  1. That’s without the app knowing that Aaron Rodgers has a broken collarbone.  (back)
By Tim Talmadge | @FullOnTLT | Archive

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