Advice

Winning The Flex: Week 6 Edition

Winning the flex focuses on difficult lineup decisions across positions each week.

To show our appreciation, we have changed the format of this article and are involving more of our followers. Every week I will be taking the best questions from the weekly “Winning The Flex” thread on the forums and using our apps to give the best advice possible.

Theo Riddick vs. Jaron Brown vs. Donte Moncrief

Winning The flex

My RBs are: Ellington/McGuire
My WRs are: Sanders/Alshon/Will Fuller

(ugly, I know, both Shady and AJG on bye this week..)

In 2016, Donte Moncrief’s WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating) was .40.  So far this season it’s at .39, but that number is heavily skewed by the first two games and since then his WOPR has fallen every single week. Even against a Titans defense that has allowed the third-most fantasy points to WR’s, Moncrief is really hard to trust. Theo Riddick is theoretically in a good spot this week against the Saints but has only received ten touches in a game once this season.

JARON BROWN

Game Level Similarity Projection

STD 1/2PPR PPR
Low 5.9 8.5 10.9
Median 8.7 11.9 15.1
High 11.1 14.9 18.7

Using Browns’ 2017 results, he has a very sturdy projection this week. Some may come to the conclusion that John Brown’s return to a prominent role led to Jaron’s down Week 5. The reality is while John did out-snap Jaron, their production was quite similar across the board.

Name Targets Air Yards aDOT WOPR
John Brown 7 129 18.4 0.46
Jaron Brown 6 123 20.5 0.41

Buccaneers top cornerback Brent Grimes is still playing at a high level, but co-starter Vernon Hargreaves has been getting torched. The Bucs have only played four games and Hargreaves has allowed the fourth-most receiving yards this season. The Cardinals are leading the NFL in pass attempts and this matchup has sneaky shootout potential.

Amari Cooper vs. Martavis Bryant and Ameer Abdullah vs. Aaron Jones

 

Winning The Flex

PPR
Amari Cooper or Martavis Bryant
Ameer Abdullah or Aaron Jones (assuming no TyMont)

Also, what do y’all think about the Hyde situation? Worth considering one of the two RBs above over hyde?

The Cooper/Bryant decision is a bit tricky and could depend on whether you need a high floor or high ceiling. After what we’ve seen from Cooper this year, he can no longer be viewed as a must start, but the targets should still be there. It’s another rough matchup so his ceiling is capped. Martavis is in a good spot to finally connect on one of those long bombs as the Chiefs defense has allowed the most air yards in the league. Just be aware if it doesn’t happen you’ll likely be left with very little. Bryant is struggling, and reports even suggest his role may be reduced.

Ameer Abdullah

Game Level Similarity Projection

STD 1/2PPR PPR
Low 8.1 9.5 10.6
Median 10.1 10.9 13.1
High 14.2 15.6 18.8

If Montgomery sits, the answer would be Aaron Jones. Unfortunately, it looks like Montgomery may be rushing back to hold off the rookie.

The Lions/Saints matchup has the highest projected total of the week so there should be plenty of opportunities. Abdullah is averaging over 15 touches per game but has only found the end zone once. There’s potential for that to change as the Saints are allowing 4.5 yards per rushing attempt, and Abdullah has the fifth-most runs over 15 yards. The only real concern is whether or not Detroit can keep the game script favorable as projected five-point underdogs on the road.

Latavius Murry vs. Duke Johnson vs. Pierre Garcon

Winning The Flex

Latavius murray, Duke Johnson, or Christian Mccaffrey? Would you start any over garcon? Don’t know if it matters but standard league

Duke isn’t a very attractive option in standard leagues unless he supplants Crowell at some point. Murray could be a goal line threat, but without Stefon Diggs I’m not expecting the Vikings to score a lot of points this week.

Pierre Garcon

STD 1/2PPR PPR
Low 1.6 2.7 3.9
Median 5.2 7.2 9.2
High 12.5 14.5 16.5

Josh Norman is expected to miss the game so I’m not concerned about the low floor projection here.  Over the last three weeks, only the Cardinals and Giants have thrown the ball more than the 49ers. Garcon received the eighth-most targets in the league on a 22 percent target share.

This week Vegas projects the 49ers as double digit underdogs, which means that the passing volume should continue to be there. Washington has allowed the fourth-fewest receiving yards so I’m not expecting an explosion, but opportunity is king and Garcon is a lock for a lot of it.

Be sure to hit the forums next week and get your questions in.

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By Tim Talmadge | @FullOnTLT | Archive

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