Ultimate Zero RB Watchlist: NFC Week 6
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Welcome to the Ultimate Zero RB Watchlist. The goal of this piece is to help you find RB targets for your Zero-RB teams before anyone else even knows about them. We know that startable RB weeks can come from almost anywhere in the NFL. By being aware of depth charts that could yield surprising weekly starters, we put ourselves in position to grab the next breakout RB before he breaks out. We’ll take a close look at depth charts around the league in order to find the next-man-up situations that nobody is talking about . . . yet. Throughout the season we’ll monitor playing time and usage to identify exploitable, under-the-radar trends that have the potential to pay off with league-winning upside. Be sure to check out Cort Smith’s companion piece on the AFC. Week 6 marks another change in the format of this piece, as this time we’ll use expected points and PPR together to identify some possible regression candidates. The table below lists each running back’s season-long expected point total along with their season-long PPR total, and the difference between those. A negative number in the “Points Over Expectation” column indicates some positive regression may be in store, while a positive number indicates that negative regression may be on the way. That is to say, players with larger absolute values in the “Points Over Expectation” column are those who are drastically over- or underperforming their workloads. This sort of over- or underperformance often leads to actionable opportunities for buying low and selling high. Below the table I’ll offer some commentary on the most interesting situations.