Ultimate Zero RB Watch List – AFC Week 6

Through the first four weeks of the season, the focus of the Zero RB Watch List has been on keeping close tabs on every AFC backfield while using Expected Points as our guide.  This week, we’ll compare those Expected Points with the actual points scored to identify potential regression candidates, good or bad. 

What is expected points (EP)? As defined by the RotoViz glossary:

EP is calculated using the average fantasy point value of a target/rush with the same line of scrimmage.

It’s another valuable perspective in examining RB workloads. Rather than focusing on raw fantasy points or snap counts, EP takes noisy efficiency out of the equation and provides a clear picture of opportunity.

Here’s a look at the EP of every running back in the AFC to date, contrasted against their actual PPR totals in fantasy leagues. After the table, we’ll talk regression candidates and run down key developments from Week 5.

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By Cort Smith | @cortnall | Archive

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  1. @Cort & others. Vereen, Freeman, Burkhead, Henry. I'm probably going to have to drop one of them this week to pick up a QB with three Bengals on a bye this week (could also drop Eifert or Ricardo Louis? I'm dropping Dickson to try to add Mack and will figure out TE later). Which player is probably the safest to drop this week and pray they're on the WW next week? I've attached my complete roster below.


  2. In terms of dropability, I would probably order them - Burkhead, Vereen, Foreman & Henry.

    For what it's worth, I'm not sure holding on to Eifert is necessary at this point. He hasn't practiced since Week 2 and we haven't been hearing much about any positive progress. I would definitely drop him over R Lewis.

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