Advice

Tuesday Trades: Week 5 Offers Tantalizing Injury Discounts

Welcome back to Tuesday Morning Trades, a weekly column that will highlight players to target today before their prices change tomorrow. This week we saw LeGarrette Blount “look like the old LeGarrette” as he wrecked the Chargers for 156 yards. We saw Eddy Lacy “look like the old Eddie” as he rumbled through the Colts secondary in relief of the injured Chris Carson. I wonder if we’ll see “the old Adrian Peterson” sometime soon. It seems that whenever a player we love to hate has a big play, we weren’t wrong about him–he suddenly “looks like a totally different player.” As a fantasy owner, it’s useful to know when the community is hitting the haterade too hard. Everyone looks bad getting tackled in the backfield. Everyone looks good sprinting through huge holes to the secondary. I’ve got Jeremy Hill, Frank Gore, and Jonathan Stewart on the watchlist as guys that might head to the doghouse next.1 In the meantime, here are some of the best buys and sells at each position.
  1. Hill is probably already there.  (back)

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By Devin McIntyre | @devinmci | Archive

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  1. Dennis says:

    i agree with u for the most part. i hate having two TEs, i hate spending up or trading for QBs...(tho i thought maybe if gates went down id have some big upside at TE...yet gates isnt playing much so isnt at much risk of injury

    the only thing that i wonder about is...brees has two home games and 2 dome games for fantasy playoffs. maybe with Hunt i can afford to "downgrade" from kamara to Ingram for that in a Hppr league...especially since its at least possible that Ingram out produces AK anyway....

  2. @JollyG804 With Hopkins, Fuller, and his own rushing ability, Watson is set up to be a big scorer, and I like Kamara a lot better than Ingram, but I own a surprising amount of Brees for his own merits and the league-winning schedule. As a likely playoff team, that playoff schedule is just too appetizing to turn down.

    @hrr5010 Even with Ajayi disappointing, I prefer that side. This is a good time to sell Duke.

  3. I was tweeting about this the other day, but the difference between RB12 and RB24 end of season, is probably going to be about 2 points per game, which last week meant the difference of a single TD. TD scoring is very seriously skewing people's perceptions of how valuable different players are right now.

    James White is dominating snaps on the Patriots. He hasn't scored a TD, but Dion Lewis got one last week near the goal line. There's competition, yes, but there are also 4 TDs a week, whereas Cleveland isn't guaranteed any TDs in any given week, and Kizer has already shown that he's going to keep vulturing them. So to me it's a kind of odd trade because White and Duke and Kamara are all kind of similar. I said Duke was a candidate to be this year's Golden Tate, but it's still likely he puts up random zeros in your lineup.

    Anyway, White is equal or better than Duke, to me. The trade is really Ajayi for Kamara straight up, and I will take Ajayi almost every time here. Ajayi is probably getting punished for only playing three games so far because of the Week 1 bye, and we saw last year that he can be a boom/bust profile on this Dolphins team. That's fine with me . . . you have all these receiving backs already, but Ajayi is one of a very shortlist of players that can truly dominate a backfield and put up these 150+ yard games. I think the experiment with an empty backfield throwing fades to Julius Thomas on the goal line is over. There's risk, obviously, but I'm not afraid of Ajayi just because he was overvalued in drafts. Snead is also going to come back, and we haven't seen how that may affect Kamara's receptions.

    I like Kamara a lot and own him on most redraft teams. But he has 100% of the Saints RB touchdowns, which is not likely to continue. Through the first 3 weeks, Ingram had more receptions.

  4. What are your lineup requirements and who are your TEs?

    I don't really like that trade. If anything, I think you want to shop AB to a strong team that has underperforming assets on the bench. So if there's a 3-1 team that has Dez, Ajayi, Abdullah, try to trade AB+Crowell for all three. But I would probably try to keep AB, and then package anything of value to try to get one risky or underperforming stud. Like maybe you can offer Crow+Fuller+Russell and get Dez, TyMo or maybe Ajayi even cheaper, or maybe even Lesean McCoy.

    When your team sucks, the advantage you have over the rest of the league is that you can stream really aggressively based on matchups, whereas other teams don't want to drop good players for a one-week matchup. Also, when people DO start dropping good RBs because they have BYE week issues, you can grab them. Just as an example, I was forced to drop Ajayi in a league last year because of injuries and BYEs--whoops.

    So I think you want to buy low on RBs without TDs but who are on decent offenses. But otherwise, try to push as many assets as you can into as good WRs as you can get, cut your WR depth, and stash as many RBs as possible. Especially RBs on good offenses

    Cousins and Ryan have byes, so those teams are good targets to send Russell and pry away a good asset (don't try to get their QB back just ship Russell).

    Anyway, it depends on your lineup reqs, but I would probably be trying to ship Russell, Fuller, Amendola, Benj/Maclin, and any RBs it takes to try to get Dez or Keenan Allen, and basically stream QB, roll out AB/Coop/Dez/Ingram, have one bench WR, and then just stash as many RBs on good teams as you can. Burkhead, Dion Lewis, Corey Clement, Rawls, Lacy, Jalen Richard, Zenner, Donta Foreman, Charc West, AP, Jerick McKinnon, any WAS RBs that get dropped, Jamaal Williams/Aaron Jones, Alf Morris, Charles/Booker, PIT rbs, Ivory/Grant. If you go down to 4 WRs, then you can have at least 8 RBs that could break out. I also like targeting Martavis Bryant and Marshawn Lynch in .5 ppr. And with Lynch, you can also have Richard backing him up, who might be the best RB on the team right now, imo.

  5. RECAP OF WEEK 4 RECOMMENDATIONS
    http://rotoviz.com/2017/09/tuesday-morning-trades-week-4/

    Buys

    LUCK - I suggested that the time to buy Luck--if he made sense as a stash in your league-- was before he returned to practice while some were worried that he wouldn’t play this season. Luck has returned to practice now, and continues to say he’s definitely playing this year, so the peak discount is probably behind us.

    DEANDRE WASHINGTON - This was a speculative add with Jalen Richard on the injury report. But Richard was cleared later in the week. Both got only 6 snaps, and Jamize Olawale got a fair amount of run, which we should keep an eye on. But this was a tough game against the Broncos, where the Raiders got absolutely nothing going & Carr left with an injury. I still like targeting the Raiders backfield at cheaper prices than ever. The Raiders have on two occasions, on 1st and goal, thrown three consecutive incompletions and kicked a FG. I think their pass/run splits will move a bit more to the run going forward.

    BRANDEN OLIVER - Another speculative add with Gordon on the injury report with yet another knee injury. Gordon played the vast majority of the snaps, but he also did nothing, and had 10 carries for 22 yards, 3 targets, 1 reception for 7 yards. Ugh. I think Oliver is still a hold in case Gordon is not right. Austin Ekeler did look good, getting a 35 yard scamper for a TD and a couple passes, but he only actually played 3 snaps the whole game.

    BLOUNT - Well, this was a good one. Blount dominated for 156 total yards against the Chargers on only 33% snaps and looked physical as always. With Smallwood also on the injury report, the chance to get Blount cheap is gone.

    MIXON - Mixon didn't really do anything notable in this game, in which Dalton threw for all 4 of the Bengals TDs, but he dominated the backfield with 17 carries and 4 receptions. He still only played 48% of snaps, but if there were any questions about what Zampese would like to do with the RBs, they've been answered. Mixon's weak box score probably means the window to acquire him is still open, but the expection for owners is that he's the lead runner and will be used in the passing game as well.

    MARTAVIS BRYANT - The Steelers leaned on Le’Veon against a lifeless BAL team, but Bryant led the team in receiving with 48 yards. He’s not going to have receptions in bunches like Brown, but in standard leagues I’m still coveting his role as a deep threat and touchdown maker with decent volume as well.

    JUJU SMITH-SCHUSTER - Juju had another TD which he celebrated with an incredible Kamehameha. He’s locked into that #3 role and will be hard to pry away from owners who drafted him this spring.

    TYRELL WILLIAMS - Williams price was falling, but his usage was steady. He delivered against the Eagles with 5 catches for 115 yards, including a 75 yard TD. We’ll see what happens when Mike Williams gets healthy, but for now his value has jumped back up.

    AMARI - Very difficult matchup in Denver, but the news has come up that Crabtree has a bruised lung, which you can’t rush back from. Any negative news on Crabtree will keep driving Cooper’s price back up. The Carr injury won’t help, unless it snaps him out of whatever mental block is making him turning up field before he makes the catch. His share of this depth chart remains huge.

    RYAN GRIFFIN - Griffin was okay with 5 targets, and a red zone catch that was called back by penalty. But Will Fuller coming back fully healthy already, and Bruce Ellington sticking in the starting lineup and playing 66 offensive snaps, means that Griffin will be matchup dependent if HOU plays 3 WRs so heavily.

    Sells

    COUSINS - This was a simple sell high recommendation following Cousins big game in Oakland. Cousins helped himself out with a bunch of scrambles in desperation mode, but was limited to 15 completions for 220 yards against the Chiefs. His 2 TDs were solid, and he actually should’ve had a game-winner to Doctson, who couldn’t hold on when he hit the ground. But with Crowder not much of a factor, he’s still been buoyed by a handful of big plays. The first was a 44 yard bomb to Terrelle Pryor, who clearly pushed off Marcus Peters but got away with it.

    DEMARCO MURRAY - Hard to make too much of this one, where TEN was totally blown out. But Mariota vultured two rushing TDs and then got hurt, leading to Matt Cassel entering the game. Murray got only two targets again, and his value continues to slide.

    FUNCHESS - I said to buy Funchess if he’s undervalued, but to use the juicy Patriots matchup as an opportunity to move him at full price to owners who have been waiting on his 3rd year breakout. Funchess didn’t disappoint, with 2 TDs, 7 catches for 70 yards, and led the team with 9 targets. The selling window should remain open, but his price may actually have gone down, as his best game is likely in the rear view mirror.

    EBRON - Ebron played 43% snaps. He’s no longer close to the share of the offense he needs to be to be startable.

    EIFERT - Tyler Kroft had two TDs in Eifert’s place.

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