3-Point NBA Strategy – Maximizing Expected Value on Offense
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Analytics is growing in the NBA as teams gather talented thinkers to unlock basketball’s hidden secrets and strengthen their front office’s ability to predict and evaluate player impact. It was once paramount to dazzle fans with tough fall-away jumpers & wizardly dribbling to maintain relevance, but as NBA strategy progresses, it’s crucial to find players who will be conducive to team success in the long run. The rise of the 3-point shot has shifted the paradigm; we want players to make the most out of each possession and have reason to believe that modern NBA strategy has become cognizant of the expected values associated with certain shots. As evidenced by Steve Shea, a gameplan that avoids mid-range jumpers and preaches that shots at the rim three-point looks should be prioritized will end up getting more points. It’s extremely sensible. Let’s present a hypothetical. If we can make 65 percent of our shots around the rim, 38 percent of our 3-point attempts, and 42 percent of our midrange jumpers, then we ought to limit our tries from midrange. Here’s why: