Stealing Signals Week 7: NFC Advanced Stats

Stealing Signals provides your Week 7 look at snaps, touches, game flow, efficiency, and everything in between. Also, check out the AFC. If I don’t touch on a specific player you’re looking for information about, check past iterations in the archives of this series.  

Philadelphia Eagles

Snap Notes: Nelson Agholor – 77% (tied season high); Torrey Smith – 56% (second straight season low); LeGarrette Blount – 48% (season high); Corey Clement – 16% Key Stat: Nelson Agholor – 25.2 reFPOE (sixth most in NFL) On top of dominating targets in a way no other tight end is (0.26 target share), Zach Ertz has suddenly become a touchdown machine. Ertz came into the season having caught TDs on a weak 3.6 percent of his career targets. Through six games, he’s sitting at a robust 7.5 percent TD rate and has already tied his career high in TDs for a season (four). This is because the Eagles have featured him in the red zone – Ertz has the fourth most expected fantasy points inside the 20, second among TEs, and his eight targets have totaled 24 reEP. Nelson Agholor continued to distance himself from Torrey Smith as the WR2, both in playing time and productivity. The snap margin between the two in Week 6 was the widest we’ve seen this year, and Agholor came out of it with a 7-4-55-1 line. Since he first out-snapped Smith in Week 4, he has been substantially more involved in the offense. PHI WRs Wks 4-6 Agholor has scored two 50-plus yard TDs this year, and his four TDs and 25.2 reFPOE1 make him look like a sell. On the flip side, his WOPR2 of 0.39 over the past three weeks indicates his role has expanded and he’s the clear third option behind just Ertz and Alshon Jeffery in a good passing offense right now. While his season-long 9.4 aDOT is lowest among all Eagles WRs and suggests the profile of a player that likely won’t sustain big plays, Agholor leads the team with four targets inside the 10, and he’s actually been inefficient in that area, catching just one TD. It all adds up to probable efficiency regression — his reFPOE is sixth most in the NFL — but expanding overall opportunity to offset some of that. The Eagles project to play the most difficult WR schedule and second most difficult QB schedule the rest of the season, per the Buy Low Machine. They draw Washington on Monday night, with Josh Norman’s status up in the air, and Denver in three weeks. That makes Agholor worthy of a sell call, depending on what the return package looks like. Alshon Jeffery leads the offense with a 0.59 WOPR and his -8.6 reFPOE is probably due for some positive regression. He’s someone I’d likely look to buy, if not for the schedule, which puts owners in a tough spot. For Carson Wentz, the recommendation is probably also a hold, or perhaps a sell if you get great value. The schedule is much more neutral for TEs, suggesting we could continue to see Ertz thrive as the lead passing option. Wentz has taken a step forward as a passer in nearly every statistical measure in his second season, but is also running more. His 133 rushing yards have nearly matched his 2016 total of 150 and have added to his fantasy floor. You also have the pace of the offense to consider, and the Eagles are tied for the most offensive plays in football. They’ve been in a lot of plus scripts at 5-1, which has the effect of boosting play volume, but Wentz hasn’t thrown for more than 31 passes for four straight games, and that type of run lean typically keeps the clock moving and limits play volume. Ultimately, they seem content running a faster-paced offense, which boosts everyone to a degree. Wentz looks unlikely to finish as a top-five fantasy QB due to the schedule, but is a fine option if you pair him with a streamer and avoid some of the toughest matchups. Also, at RB, note LeGarrette Blount played a season high in snaps, but Wendell Smallwood is likely to return in Week 7. He was leading the backfield in snaps before his injury. Signal: Team – fast pace (evidenced by running the most total plays despite a rushing lean) Noise: Nelson Agholor – 25.2 reFPOE  

Carolina Panthers

Snap Notes: Christian McCaffrey – 74%; Jonathan Stewart – 33% (season low) Key Stat: Christian McCaffrey – 78.3 receiving PPR points (only 12 RBs have scored more total rushing and receiving points)
  1. Receiving Fantasy Points Over Expectation  (back)
  2. Weighted Opportunity Rating, which factors in both targets and Air Yards.  (back)

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By Ben Gretch | @YardsPerGretch | Archive