Stealing Signals Week 7: AFC Advanced Stats

Stealing Signals provides your Week 7 look at snaps, touches, game flow, efficiency, and everything in between. Also, check out the NFC. If I don’t touch on a specific player you’re looking for information about, check past iterations in the archives of this series.  

Houston Texans

Snap Notes: D’Onta Foreman – 35% (season high) Key Stat: Deshaun Watson – QB1 from Weeks 2 to 6 The Texans’ RB usage the last few weeks suggested Lamar Miller was the clear lead back, with D’Onta Foreman racking up 13 Week 4 carries in garbage time. It was more or less the same deal in Week 6, as Foreman’s touches skewed to the second half of a game the Texans led 24-3 at the break. HOU RBs Wk6 Q1-2 HOU RBs Wk6 Q3-4 For better or worse, Miller has consistently been the lead back in recent weeks, though touch counts suggest it’s closer because of the playing time Foreman has picked up in large leads. Deshaun Watson was hyper-efficient again, and his 7.8 yards per attempt was actually the lowest he’s produced in the last four games.1 I had an interesting discussion this week about the weapons around Watson, and it’s obvious that’s a plus for a young QB, though not a guarantee for success. It’s more complicated than Brock Osweiler and Tom Savage being bad. Paxton Lynch immediately came to mind, but his sample is pretty limited. Trevor Siemian, on the other hand, is an example of a QB whose weapons probably helped him to a strong enough start this year that people were discussing him in breakout terms. He’s since settled in as a “meh” QB who is elevated a bit by a talented surrounding cast. What Watson has done is different and is more along the lines of what you’d expect if you had a strong supporting cast and added a QB that brought something substantial himself. We did talk last week about Houston’s recent schedule and how Cleveland was another plus matchup. During Watson’s strong four-game passing stretch he’s faced a schedule very conducive to QB fantasy scoring. Hou QB Wks 2-6 Using the Buy Low Machine to look back includes some bias as Watson’s performances have impacted the data, but it’s still safe to say he’ll face some more difficult secondaries down the road. Signal: Lamar Miller – still the clear lead back outside heavy positive game script Noise: Will Fuller – dude has five TDs on eight receptions now  

Cleveland Browns

Snap Notes: Kasen Williams – 58% (season high) Key Stat: Team – no RB/WR/TE with double-digit PPR points in Week 6
  1. For context, only five quarterbacks have a higher YPA for the season.  (back)

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By Ben Gretch | @YardsPerGretch | Archive

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  1. Great call on adding Ross.

  2. Jeff says:

    LOVE the Stealing Signals articles! I'll credit them (and some good luck) to a 6-0 start in my 0.5 PPR league. As referred to in the article, I'm looking to find some potential homerun hitters for the playoffs. We start 2 RB, 2 WR, flex. My roster includes: Dalton and Luck (keeper for next year) at QB; Gordon, Kamara, D Lewis, Collins, Foreman at RB; Diggs, Evans, Woods, Kearse, Corey Davis, Roger Lewis at WR; Gronk and ASJ at TE. My Ravens DST has bye in Week 10, so I'll have to work around that in near future.

    Our waiver wire has Coleman, Ross, J Matthews, and Greg Olsen available. I've been holding Lewis and Kearse, but wondering whether one or both are better off replaced by Ross or Matthews in the short term and Coleman and Olsen in the long term. Anyone with thoughts? Thanks!

  3. @BenGretch @RotoDoc these articles are the best. A must-read each week. I'm thinking of taking your advice and picking up John Ross. Any thoughts on whether I am better off dropping Maclin or JuJu S-S for him?

  4. Jeff says:

    Thanks for your insights, @BenGretch! Reading between the lines of your response and considering the articles this week, I suppose Lewis is a hold because he has the potential for more touches and had tough recent matchups, versus Kearse is a known entity and is clearly behind ASJ +/- Anderson for targets? Playing that logic out, exchange Ross for Kearse now and then Lewis for Coleman once Shepard is back in the fold for the G-men?

  5. Jeff says:

    Well, @BenGretch, looks like I'll be looking for your thoughts in the upcoming Stealing Signals regarding the Giants and Rams! If you could humor me for one more question (Diggs is out this week again and his injury is throwing a wrench in my plans to greedily attain 7-0)...who to start at second WR spot and at flex in 0.5 PPR among Woods, Lewis, Kearse (or Ross if I swap them); ASJ; Dion Lewis, Alex Collins? Leaning towards Woods at WR and ASJ at flex, mostly because GLSP seems to like Woods this week. Am I wrong here?

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