Advice

Stealing Signals: Week 5, AFC

As we head into bye weeks, our focus narrows away from stable situations to where we can identify future shifts in value. Here are the actionable notes for Week 5 in the AFC. Also check out the NFC.

Miami Dolphins

Snap Notes: Kenny Stills – 90% (season average – 92%); DeVante Parker – 90% (season average – 92%); Jarvis Landry – 88% (season average – 91%) Key Stat: DeVante Parker – 0.68 WOPR The signal in Miami is the same as it’s been the last two weeks:
“The concentration of targets was key and allowed the three WRs to all post encouraging lines (particularly opportunity-wise).”
More specifically, it’s the snaps. Jarvis Landry, DeVante Parker, and Kenny Stills have all played at least 88 percent of the snaps in each of Miami’s three games this year. To recognize how strong this trend is, consider there’s only one other team in the NFL, Dallas, that has any three skill position players (not just WRs) all over 80 percent in the last three weeks.1 Julius Thomas and Jay Ajayi are also averaging strong snap rates, at 77 percent and 69 percent respectively. Here’s how that manifests in target concentration. Miami Targets 3 Remember Miami has played just three games, so we’re looking at averages of 11, nine, and six for the three WRs, accounting for 73 percent of the Dolphins’ 107 pass attempts. All three are in play in various formats against Tennessee’s secondary. Signal: Significant snaps, volume for team’s top three WRs Noise: Week 4 play volume – 52 offensive snaps  

Pittsburgh Steelers

Snap Notes: JuJu Smith-Schuster – 71% (second straight game out-snapping Martavis Bryant) Key Stat: Le’Veon Bell – 39 touches in Week 4
  1. Jason Witten, Dez Bryant, Ezekiel Elliott  (back)

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By Ben Gretch | @YardsPerGretch | Archive

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