Advice

Rest of Season RB Ranks – Week 7

Now that several players have six games worth of data for 2017, the model will be at its strongest point from here on out. That’s because I’ve shown before that six games of recent data is the most predictive in terms of predicting future performance, at least for a single-term model. Adding other terms, we get a model that has an out-of-sample R-squared value of 0.45, meaning the model explains about 45 percent of the total variation in fantasy points per game from here to the end of the fantasy season (through Week 16). The terms in the Week 7 model are:
  • PPR points per game Weeks 1-6
  • Rushing yards per game Weeks 1-6
  • Current week Depth Chart
  • Receiving yards per game over the player’s last 16 games played
  • Age
This captures several things. First, it captures form this year, especially on the ground. Second, it captures long-term receiving form. Most running backs don’t transition from a scat-back role to a bruiser role, so long-term receiving form is quite stable. The Depth Chart is admittedly a bit hacked, as it’s trained and tested separately only on 2017 data since I don’t have week-to-week depth chart data prior to 2017. Finally, age is significant and has been every week I’ve run the model. As a reminder, to qualify for the model a player had to meet the following criteria:
  1. Minimum 5 opportunities per game (targets+rushes)
  2. Minimum 3 games played
Here’s the rest of season rankings heading into Week 7.

Rest of Season RB Ranks – PPR

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By RotoDoc | @RotoDoc | Archive

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  1. Great stuff. I was trying to see if I could move CJ Anderson for another RB but it looks like it will be difficult to do since the players with similar trade value based on expectation will have similar or worst projected points. Maybe I can get an Ajayi owner to bite though most people will be reluctant to give up the higher draft pick.

  2. I'd move CJA for a similar player, yes. I think the model and the experts are too high on him given what Booker did. It seems like CJA's projection and expert ranking are at his rest of season ceiling.

  3. Great stuff @RotoDoc. This is really useful insight.

    Reading this I'm wondering if now the time to cut my losses on Abdullah and pick up Chris Ivory? I get the feeling the Fournette owner will soon wise up and claim him otherwise.

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