PGA DFS Projections and Picks: The CJ Cup

Welcome to my PGA DFS machine learning model for the CJ Cup at Nine Bridges. This is the first PGA Tour event at Nine Bridges. Although, Nine Bridges has hosted some LPGA tournaments. The course has four par fives and is roughly 7,200 yards which is a little on the short side for a par 72. I’m working with limited data, but I expect low scores and more birdies than at a typical PGA event. For more on the course and key stats check out Matt Dulcan’s weekly article. The field consists of 78 golfers and has no cut, so probabilities to make the cut have been eliminated from the projections.

CJ Cup Projections

These projections are generated using a combination of statistical simulation and machine learning algorithms. More than 40 factors go into the model, including long-term normalized round score, driving accuracy, driving distance, the proximity of approach shots, temperature and wind velocity, to name a few. Three columns: ToPar, DK.Pts and Win%, are generated using three separate algorithms which all draw from the same underlying data. Explanation of each column:
  • Top10% is the probability that the player will finish in the top ten.
  • DK.Pts is the average number of DraftKings points that the player will score.
  • DK.Sal is the golfer’s DraftKings salary.
  • DK.Value is the number of fantasy points per dollar of salary.

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By John Gambill | @GamblinJohnny | Archive